Most nations’ campaigns to shift to renewable energy and the still weak global economy are taking their toll on international coal prices — which are falling — making it ideal for the Philippines to maintain its current pragmatic energy path of not abandoning conventional fuels.

International bank unit Maybank Research revised its forecasts, lifting coal production to 19 million metric tons (mmt) for this year, but this is offset by a 20-percent reduction in average selling price (ASP) assumptions.

Contracted power ASPs have risen six percent, though this only partially offsets weaker mining profitability. MayBank expects coal prices to continue normalizing through 2026 as demand softens and inventories remain elevated.

The price trend has not been reflected in the outlook for Semirara Mining and Power Corp., whose financial performance remains soft.

Semirara’s third-quarter performance remained soft, with earnings at 61 percent of forecasts as coal prices continued to normalize and non-cash mine development costs rose.

Semirara posted a net income in the three months to September of P1.5 billion, bringing the year’s earnings up to September to P9.9 billion. The weakness reflected softer coal prices and higher non-cash mine development costs, according to MayBank.