Former president Rodrigo Duterte is likely to be transferred only to the neighboring countries of The Hague, Netherlands — the headquarters of the International Criminal Court (ICC) — once his petition for temporary release is granted by the tribunal.

ICC-accredited lawyer Joel Butuyan, president of the Center for International Law and one of the counsels of drug war victims, explained in an interview Sunday that this is primarily because only state parties to the Rome Statute can host a pre-trial detainee.

Any country that is a member of the ICC is legally bound to its rules and regulations, and having Duterte under the custody of the same would allow the international tribunal to compel them to follow whatever necessary actions must be taken.

“Only a member country [of the ICC] must agree to host him [because] they have to follow ICC's orders," Butuyan said.

The Rome Statute, the treaty that established the ICC, has 125 state parties at present, 19 of which are from Asia Pacific countries, including Timor-Leste, Korea, and Japan.

Duterte’s lawyer, Nicholas Kaufman, is petitioning the ICC to temporarily release the former leader while the confirmation of his charges, scheduled for 23 September, is still pending.

Application for interim release pending trial is permitted by the ICC, though there are conditions that need to be met by the appellant.

This includes that a pre-trial detainee is not a flight risk, won’t obstruct the ongoing investigation, or is not at risk of recommitting the crimes he is accused of.

Last week, returning lawmaker Antonio Tinio suspected that this is the reason behind Vice President Sara Duterte and Davao Rep. Paolo Duterte’s frequent trips abroad.

“They are scouting and negotiating with countries to take custody of this massive human rights violator,” Tinio said.

In convincing the ICC, Kaufman told the court that Duterte cannot imperil the proceedings because he no longer “commands the same influence or power,” and therefore should be released.

Moreover, he argued that Duterte’s advanced age must be taken into consideration.

The 80-year-old Duterte has been detained at Scheveningen Prison in The Hague since his arrest in March in Manila, and will remain there while awaiting the confirmation of his charges.

He is facing a single count of crimes against humanity over killings recorded between 1 November 2011 and 16 March 2019, spanning his time as mayor of Davao City and as president.

In a redacted document dated 12 June, Kaufman told the ICC that an unnamed host country had already agreed “to receive Mr. Duterte onto its territory for the term of his interim release and will act, in accordance with its domestic law, to implement such conditions.”

Butuyan, however, believes that releasing Duterte will “interfere” with the investigation and “cause reputational damage on the part of the ICC and [its] prosecutors.”

Aside from this, he added that this would be a “great concern” for the family of the victims of his bloody drug war, as they will fear for their safety, knowing the alleged perpetrator is unrestrained.

“Now, those (victims) will be even more afraid,” he added.

Rights lawyer and former lawmaker Neri Colmenares echoed the same concern on Friday, claiming that it will “escalate the attacks” being employed by the massive followers of the erstwhile leader against those who will stand as witnesses in his trial.

“The victims and their lawyers have been under attack, and this will escalate if he is free to orchestrate this,” said Colmenares, also a counsel for drug war victims. “The safety of those seeking justice must be prioritized over the convenience of the accused.”

The government logged more than 6,000 drug-related deaths during Duterte’s presidency, though rights watchdogs estimate that the actual death toll could exceed 30,000, most of them from low-income communities.