Some of the more substantial allegations of the International Criminal Court (ICC) against former President Rodrigo Duterte, who is in its custody in The Hague on a crimes against humanity charge for his war on drugs, are unraveling.

Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, a Wisconsin-based institution that collects information on the circumstances surrounding all reported political violence and protests worldwide, said in a report that casualties continue to be recorded in the anti-narcotics campaign of the current administration, albeit in far lower numbers.

“The ICC arrest happened amid the backdrop of intense political wrangling between the Duterte and Marcos families, and it is now likely to be the defining issue of the 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines this May,” said Laura Sorica, ACLED East Asia research manager.

“There is no question that thousands died during the Duterte-era war on drugs, which reached a peak early on in Duterte’s term and had already caught the ICC’s attention back then. However, under the current Marcos administration, the war on drugs has continued to produce casualties, albeit at a much lower rate, with ACLED recording 326 drug war-related civilian fatalities since Marcos Jr. took office,” the report said.

Such deaths were labeled extrajudicial killings (EJK) during the Duterte regime.

ACLED also noted that in the weeks following the ICC arrest, “nationwide protests against and in support of Duterte broke out in the Philippines.”

It said its data showed that rallies in support of Duterte were predominant in March, with nearly 60 rallies for and eight against the former president.

“The largest protest took place in Davao City, Duterte’s stronghold, where supporters condemned President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. for allowing the arrest,” it said.

The EJKs, in relation to the war on drugs, thus remain a topic for debate.

The number of Duterte drug war-related deaths has been heavily contested over the years. The official police count was 6,252 deaths between 1 July 2016 and 31 May 2022.

Human rights groups cited by the ICC estimated closer to 30,000 deaths. ACLED’s count, “based on reports from over 30 sources,” is conservative, deferring to the lowest estimate when fatalities are unclear. The latest ACLED data shows a total of 7,843 drug war-related civilian deaths from 1 January 2016 to 29 June 2022.

The Duterte administration’s war on drugs, launched immediately after his inauguration on 30 June 2016, aimed to eradicate the illegal drug trade, which Duterte claimed had turned the Philippines into a “narco-state.”

From the outset, the high number of deaths, particularly those attributed to “unknown gunmen” or “vigilantes,” prompted scrutiny from domestic and international critics, including the United Nations and the ICC.

Those who launched the anti-narcotics campaign suggested that a significant portion of the casualties resulted from drug syndicates eliminating rivals, informants, and their own members to protect their operations.

For instance, at the launch of the campaign, 5,021 deaths were recorded from May 2016 to September 2017, with over half attributed to vigilante-style killings that were later incorporated in the “state-sponsored EJKs.”

The Philippines, due to its geographical location and its being an archipelago, has long served as a transshipment hub for illegal drugs, particularly methamphetamine or shabu from China and other regions.

International drug syndicates, including Chinese triads and local gangs, operate in the country, often engaging in violent turf wars.

The intensified anti-drug campaign disrupted the networks, leading to retaliatory killings among syndicates to eliminate competitors and silence informants.

A 2016 Associated Press report cited the theory that the vigilante killings could involve “drug syndicates killing their own” to clean house.

The Philippine National Police reported that vigilantes killed as many as 2,151 people by September 2016, outpacing police killings during the same period. Proponents argued these attacks reflected syndicate-driven violence rather than state action, as they often lacked direct evidence of police involvement.

As it turned out, the campaign stirred a hornets’ nest due to its intensity, stinging many people in the process.