Status quo

Status quo | Daily Tribune

Based on the Social Weather Stations survey on senatorial preferences (i.e., from December 2024 to March 2025) for the midterm elections, 13 names have entered the winning circle in this order: Go, Bong; Tulfo, Erwin; Tulfo, Ben; Sotto, Tito; Lapid, Lito; Bong Revilla, Ramon; Cayetano, Pia; Lacson, Ping; dela Rosa, Bato; Revillame, Willie; Binay, Abby; Pacquiao, Manny Pacman; Villar, Camille. The last three share the same ranking, i.e., 11-13.

It may be pointed out that Heidi Mendoza isn’t included among the 22 names in the SWS chart.

Might this explain why an ex-NEDA chief sort of endorsed Heidi as one the people should vote for, even spend money and time on, as she represents the right candidate compared to the likes of Bato dela Rosa et al.? Interestingly, new players like Bosita, Colonel; Marcoleta, Rodante; Bondoc, Jimmy made their debut albeit at the bottom of the polling chart, i.e., 21 and 22-23, respectively.

Other senator wannabes include, viz.: Pangilinan, Kiko; Aquino, Bam; Marcos, Imee; Salvador, Phillip Ipe; Abalos, Benhur; Honasan, Gringo; Tolentino, Francis Tol who are in the 14-20 ranking order, accordingly. This, therefore, is the total picture of the latest senatorial preference survey.

On close scrutiny, it will be instructive to characterize each senatorial aspirant based on metrics advanced by Clarissa David and Erika Fille Legara who hypothesized that “name recall” operates in favor of “media celebrities and members of political dynasties.”

According to these authors, “voters with low education and low income, who live in rural areas, and who exhibit high abstention rates” prefer these types. While the study was based on the 2010 senatorial preference, this latest SWS survey appears to still confirm David and Legara’s theory except for the three names with the lowest percentage scores.

There are indications that even members of political dynasties have stopped enjoying voters’ preference based on this referenced survey itself. In the case of media or movie celebrities, the two Tulfos, Sotto, Lapid, Revilla, Pacquiao, Revillame — bunched as one — are pretty much in the magic 12. Salvador’s 17th place as a celebrity newcomer isn’t as bad as it would seem. In short, celebrities exhibit greater preference than political dynasts.

In this 2025 election cycle insofar as senatorial preference is concerned, it’s more likely that David and Legara’s theory, one analyzed from 2010 exit poll data, still holds. However, the variance that the SWS survey reflected in the case of political dynasts might mean that this part of their theory is losing thread.

In the case of the seven celebrities turning up in the magic 12, it is straightforward proof that their theory cannot yet be debunked using more current cluster data sets.

Nothing is likely to cause change in the political configuration using these same predictors. Not even perhaps disturbing political developments like the “feud” between the Dutertes and the Marcoses could have driven a wedge that would lead to solid block voting of one over the other. Voters’ preference will generally navigate the two predictors raised by the authors in their rather dated study.

It might be unfortunate that the voting population is concentrated in Classes C, D, E rather than Classes A and B. Suffice it to say that Class D, and for that matter Class E, represent a large portion of the population, where the latter alone is often estimated to be around 18 percent of the population and Class A, B, C a mere 7 percent.

All those who have dreamed of a “country great again” from the unsettling clutches of “naked power plays” may begin to worry over how Congress itself, other than being a mere rubber stamp of the Palace, is made a powerful political apparatus of the State against its detractors, critics and enemies to preserve the status quo.

Pray not the claws of an authoritarian regime begin to take reign upon us!