The headline inflation in the country continues to slow from 2.1 percent in February to 1.8 percent in March, marking the lowest level in over three years.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Friday showed the downtrend was largely attributed to lower prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, lower transport costs, and slower inflation recorded for restaurants and accommodation services.

Food inflation, in particular, has gone down to 2.3 percent as rice prices fell 7.7 percent in February compared to 4.9 percent the previous year. The prices of meat and vegetables also grew at a slower pace, yet prices of fish, dairy, and cooking oil saw an increase during the month.

Citing the downtrend, primarily due to the drop in the prices of rice and meat, economist-lawmaker Joey Salceda warned the government should not be complacent as the cost of meat may spike in the coming months.

Salceda, a former presidential economic adviser who currently chairs the House Committee on Ways and Means, noted that while the cost of meat saw a decline from 8.8 percent in February to 8.2 percent in March, it remains a cause for concern since the figure is still comparatively higher than the overall inflation rate.

“We must remain vigilant about the price of meat which is in larger part determined by the price of corn. While corn prices declined by 1.6 percent year-on-year, meat prices increased by 8.2 percent,” the Albay solon explained.

“Meat prices will have a significant impact on the nutritional balance of the household diet. Our neighbors are investing in this, alongside education in STEM, which seems to be linked with protein sufficiency,” he said.

The price of corn has significantly influenced the cost of meat, being a major feed for livestock, including chicken, pigs, and cows as well as fish.

Fish and seafood were among the primary drivers of price increases last month, along with milk and dairy products, oils and fats, and ready-made food products. Sugar and desserts posted a smaller price decrease than in the previous month.

Although relatively high, Salceda projects that the cost of fish would fall next year, as “low corn prices are typically forward indicators of reduced meat and fish prices in [the] latter months.”

Likewise, the cost of rice, which has been a key driver of inflation over the years, will further plunge year-on-year before resuming a slightly positive inflation rate midyear, according to Salceda.