ICC’s doomsday prospect

ICC’s doomsday prospect | Daily Tribune

The international community is taking notice of something which has long been established which is that the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation on the war on drugs is being used as a political football.

Thus, the issue is being kicked between the two political power centers which are the Marcos and Duterte families.

ICC’s credibility, ultimately, is the loser in the exchange, according to political analyst Tom Smith, the academic director of the Royal Air Force College and an associate professor of international relations at the University of Portsmouth, UK.

The political motivation behind the crimes against humanity cases filed against former President Rodrigo Duterte is unarguable as the key complainant is his nemesis, former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV.

Lawyer Jude Sabio filed the case in the ICC.

Proof that Sabio was a pawn of Trillanes is that he withdrew the case vs. Duterte after a falling out with the former military mutineer over retention payments.

The Philippine case and the political forces at play in it “all cast a dark shadow on the ability of the court to do its job independently without politicization and showed just how political ICC investigations are.”

Caught in the turmoil in local politics is a stalled ICC investigation into Duterte’s drug war which is estimated to have led to the death of over 20,000 people. The ICC investigation now is used as a political football as part of a quid pro quo battle for power and favor in return for protection from the ICC, Smith said.

The ICC investigation was officially opened in 2021, more than two years after the withdrawal from the court ordered by Duterte became effective.

Sabio filed a case in April 2017 with the ICC, the tribunal’s investigation into the drug war didn’t begin until 2021 and three years later has yet to publicly move beyond appeals for witnesses.

Smith said ICC faces several significant, if not insurmountable hurdles.

“Many of the murders were not recorded as crimes at the time, let alone investigated, forensic evidence wasn’t obtained, recorded and stored...There has been no domestic legal prosecution for the extra judicial killings,” he added.

Another hurdle is that witnesses are not safe. It is unclear whether the ICC can protect people.

The probe risks exposing vulnerable people to the endemic corruption that an ICC investigation won’t root out even if it succeeds with a showcase prosecution, Smith pointed out.

The investigation does not have enough public support.

“People doing the killing are widely understood to have been the police, either in uniform in a shoot first, not worry about the consequences later policy, or ‘off-duty’ out of uniform vigilante-style,” according to the political analyst.

The modus operandi is assassins riding pillion on motorcycles vanishing without much of a trace.

The key element in the investigation is that the Dutertes remain popular, which means that “the nation would not give Rodrigo up to the ICC,” Smith explained.

“Without the support of the population at large how realistic is it that an outside international body like the ICC can penetrate the dark underbelly of the Philippines?”

Indeed, the ICC does not have a realistic chance to pursue the crime against humanity cases about the war on drugs during the term of Duterte.

ICC’s best recourse would be to offer its help to the local courts since all of the cases it took up are already being adjudicated.

By deferring to domestic courts in the name of complementarity, the ICC would bolster its tattered image.