Trump’s trade war with China

Trump’s trade war with China | Daily Tribune

An analysis of Donald Trump in his dozens of post-election pre-coronation talks reveals his true character and ideology. He is firstly an “America first” leader. Nothing is more important to him than the destiny of America, which may pose some problems.

Trump echoes the famous Monroe Doctrine: “Buried in a routine annual message delivered to Congress by President James Monroe in December 1823, the doctrine warned European nations that the United States would not tolerate further colonization or puppet monarchs.” (Source: Wikipedia.)

In addition: “The European powers, according to Monroe, were obligated to respect the Western Hemisphere as the United States’ sphere of interest.” (Source: archives.gov, a US government website)

These two quotes reveal a 19th-century American fear of other emerging superpowers threatening its global supremacy, especially emanating from Europe, the seat of colonization for centuries. Monroe feared the powerful European colonizers. Trump echoes this same fear today, but this time with regard to China. Trump carries the predominant American fear of China as a rival and threat to its power, both economic and military. Behind his saber-rattling is a hidden fear. China represents the ascending superpower, as America represents the descending one.

Just like nuclear wars, however, trade wars yield no winners. They destroy the economies of both sides. For giant economies like the US and China, they eventually destroy the global economy, because we are all hopelessly interconnected on this shrinking planet. Everybody loses.

International supply chains and downstream industries are disrupted. All forms of enterprise are affected because of the domino effect. It is worse than hurricanes and earthquakes, and can perhaps even rival the economic effects of a nuclear war, if it escalates out of proportion.

It is no longer important who started the war. Both will probably point a finger at each other. Or Trump may readily admit he started it. The goal is to end it. Trump is in a trade war mood, threatening even before he ascends the throne to increase further tariffs on Chinese imports.

Trump does not learn from history. He simply shoots from the hip. During his first reign, he initiated the trade war, imposing higher tariffs on $360 billion worth of China imports. It boomeranged instantly. The hardest hit US industries were agriculture, tech, and energy, all critical factors that drive the US economic engine. The US, as a consequence, lost so much economic ground. (Source: Al Jazeera).

Whereas China made a rebound, forced to go into research-backed new pioneering innovative products. As US industries lost billions of dollars, China regained lost ground. The National Bureau of Economic Research reported that, when the trade war peaked during Trump’s reign, US exports to China fell by almost 20 percent. Chinese exports also fell, but made a sudden rebound when the US economy boomed.

The principle is so simple, one does not need a Harvard degree to see it. High school graduates know that economic growth as well as decline are both CONTAGIOUS. War begets war. Peace begets peace. When the US economy boomed, China rode the wave. When Trump initiated the trade war, China retaliated, and both the US and China were the losers. Trade wars destroy competing economics and trade growth fosters cooperative growth.