Last Tuesday I was invited through phone-patch to a radio program by Ms. Louise Marie Lara of the Council for Climate and Conflict Action Asia, formerly International Alert Philippines. It is aired over DXMS Radyo Bida, Cotabato City and hosted by Dr. Rolah Dipatuan-Dimaporo.

The topic was two-pronged — the political alliances in BARMM and the Marawi Compensation Board. I wondered initially what the nexus was between the two issues until I found out later about the influence of one on the other. The topics were significant and meaty involving current events, which drew the attention of the stakeholders in the Muslim Autonomous Region. I will attempt to capsulize our exchange.

First, I was asked to comment on the recent alliances among regional political parties which has sparked speculations among Muslims onward to the maiden 2025 parliamentary elections.

My comment: Such party coalitions are a common feature of a parliamentary system of government like the one we selected for the BARMM. And we should not be surprised if we will see more of the same skirmishes in the coming days. This is a normal circumstance in this kind of system because theoretically the government is administered by political parties. Under this kind of new experience, political leaders in the BARMM will have to organize political parties if they want to contest the leadership in the regional government.

Looking at the present political landscape, no regional political party so far appears to be strong enough to muster a majority of the 80-member parliament. They will therefore be forced by circumstances to seek alliances with other parties to organize the so-called government of the day.

This is coalition politics characterized by negotiation, compromise, payoff and self-seeking interests.

Normally, in countries with a similar parliamentary system, like our neighbor Malaysia, we see these coalitions after the elections when choosing the Chief Minister becomes imminent. However, what we are seeing right now are alliances before the elections. Some may see this as incongruent since these parties in alliance will be competing against each other for Parliament seats.

The rest of the country practicing a personality-centered presidential type of government sees candidates engaged in party hopping or turncoatism, moving to the party in power and turning their backs on their own party. This practice is uncommon in a parliamentary system which to a certain degree disallows it.

The program host asked me to comment on the possibility of a clash between the traditional political clans and the former rebels, where the latter are seen as a threat to the hold on power of the former.

I said this was unavoidable. It is a normal reaction for the established political clans to fight off any threat to the status quo in order to perpetuate themselves in power. The United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) of former MILF rebels is offering a platform anchored on principles like justice, as its name implies. A shibboleth they are promoting is “moral governance,” which does not sit well with dynastic leaders who feel slighted by the pontification of uprightness.

The anchor asked if I foresee a marred, if not violent, political exercise coming. I said that given the history of political and electoral violence in the region, one cannot discount it. There was not one election in recent memory that was free of violence. The threat may come from the rebels who felt shortchanged in the peace negotiations given that the normalization phase of the peace agreement has not been fully completed with the decommissioning of the rebels still ongoing.

Or the disorder may come from elements who will gain from turmoil in the autonomous region like the IS-inspired dissidents. Foreseeing this, the President warned those who plan to disrupt the election that they will face the full force of the government.

In the next column: The compensation for Marawi siege victims.

amb_mac_lanto@yahoo.com