Irony at sea

Irony at sea | Daily Tribune

China has exposed its anxieties over a second arbitration process, which would make it accountable for the degradation of marine resources in the disputed region.

In disputing the Philippine plan, China said the “revival of the illegal arbitration is aimed at bringing in external forces and expanding and internationalizing the South China Sea issue.”

It then called the proposed return to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) part of repeated provocations that it warned may escalate the friction into larger disputes or even conflicts.

In 2014, the Philippines complained to the PCA in The Hague, taking issue with China’s expansive claims over the South China Sea, which China used to justify building vast military outposts with harbors and runways.

After the UN-backed tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines by invalidating China’s nine-dash-line claim in 2016, the decision was compared to biblical David’s defeat of Goliath.

China’s foreign ministry tried to put up a brave face amid increasing international pressure. It said it treated the arbitral ruling as nothing more than “a piece of waste paper” while aggressively asserting, by flexing its might, its ownership of the sea, even using military-grade lasers and water cannons on Philippine ships and seamen.

The government is now taking track of another arbitration victory to ramp up the pressure on Beijing, increasing the escalation risk.

It is a well-calculated move to chip away at the image China tries to impress on the world of a strict adherent to the “rules-based international order.”

The bet is that a second legal defeat would heavily dent China’s reputation as a responsible member of the community of nations.

The new move for arbitration is expected to center on the damage China’s activities have wrought on the marine environment.

The Philippine Coast Guard and government surveys within the exclusive economic zone found extensive damage to corals and other marine resources.

The Solicitor General said he is drafting a report on the proposal for President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.

A new complaint before the international tribunal would be another difficult process since China, as with the first complaint, is not expected to recognize it.

Also, such a move risks provoking further aggression from Beijing, which has so far used non-lethal but dangerous methods to ward off Philippine forces in the South China Sea.

“Anyone who’s been involved in a court case knows that it can make a dispute worse,” observed Douglas Guilfoyle, a professor of international law and maritime security at UNSW Canberra. “No one likes going to litigation. It’s a highly adversarial business.”

China has built a reputation for being vindictive. When South Korea imposed Covid-related curbs on travelers from China in late 2022, Beijing responded by suspending the issuance of short-term visas to Koreans.

When the US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon in its skies last year, China vowed to take countermeasures, although it’s not clear if it has done so yet.

When Japan released treated nuclear wastewater into the Pacific earlier this year, even though scientists deemed the discharge to have a negligible impact on human health, Beijing imposed a seafood import ban on Tokyo.

Ultimately, putting the South China Sea maritime row back on the international community’s radar could highlight how China can be a belligerent and uncooperative state.

The transparency strategy is running out of gas as China has maintained its bullheadedness against international mediation, which is the process provided by the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas.

Ironically, China had insisted that it submit to the international pact that it is a signatory to while ignoring the arbitral award based on the convention.