Drought is defined as a prolonged period of little or no rain. This global drought began in 2021 and is dangerously lingering for 3.5 years. The Palmer Drought Index, which measures drought intensity, stood at 82% of “moderate to extreme drought” in January 2021. This dipped to 79% in February, then soared to an alarming 99% in June 2021, a sudden violent spike.

The ongoing protracted heat waves in Southeast Asia and the Americas are an omen of a sinister future. If the trend extends for another year, we may see massive planet-wide effects never before seen, namely, food shortages and famines, triggering wars, social unrest, and anarchy. Instead of panicking, we need to get ready, plan, and launch community responses and cooperation.

A prolonged global drought is caused by many complex factors such as climate change, aberrations in ocean water temperatures, intensified land use and mining, which dramatically affect the landscape, and erratic changes in the jet stream.

Indirect causes include rampant, unchecked deforestation, which causes flood-prone soil erosion, excessive burning of fossil fuels, and extensive forest fires.

“Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The winds blow from west to east in jet streams, but the flow often shifts to north and south. Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air.” (www.weather.gov)

Common drought-prone areas include sub-Saharan nations such as Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, Iran, Morocco, and Uganda. The worst drought in human history occurred in China from 1876 to 1879, and, by broad estimates, nine to 13 million people died.

With a denser population everywhere today, a repeat of the China mega-drought is possible. The length of a drought determines the intensity of its impact. For China, then, it was a devastating four-year period, which we are not approaching.

In the United States, there is an unprecedented drought level in half of the mountain regions. In the West Coast, particularly California, the worsening drought extends from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, increasing to a Palmer Drought Index of 85% by July 2021. Since 2021, many states have declared drought emergencies, and water conservation campaigns have been conducted.

Brazil's largest contiguous rainforest is slowly shrinking due to man’s intensifying incursions triggered by unprecedented population growth. By 2022, Brazil’s coffee production was down, and 23 percent of hydroelectric dams were not operating, inducing higher electricity prices.

The Amazon River, the longest river in the world, has been the “highway” to penetrate formerly unexplored areas deep in the rainforests in the last few decades, triggering the extinction of many tribes previously insulated from mainstream ailments like the common cold. It is a virtual genocide.

In the last two decades, the United Nations reported that 1.5 billion people were affected by drought, with economic losses estimated at $124 billion. (LA Times)

Impact on agriculture

Agriculture is the lifeline for the survival of everyone, rich or poor, powerful or helpless. Cash crops affected by the drought are now affecting both marginals and multinationals on a grand scale hardly seen on the surface. The economic effects are massive — even now, as you sit and read this article. By the end of 2024, it will not be surprising if we have a global loss of trillions of dollars worth of crops.

For example, the price of cacao has quadrupled in the last few years, affecting the luxurious chocolate industry. Small firms are starting to close down on the multinational level, and the giants are holding on. Downstream industries like plantations and marginal farmers are all affected.

The shortage of basic foods such as sugar, rice, wheat, and corn will affect futures, triggering artificial shortages and panic hoarding.

It is easy to present the truth of a dark picture and more challenging to sit down and form strategies and campaigns to pull people together. The effect on human lives of the ongoing global drought may easily rival that of a nuclear holocaust — which is not an exaggeration.

(Author’s note. This article incorporates data from previous columns.)

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