Double vigilance vs IS
The coming religious festival in Quiapo should be closely watched as it offers a perfect opportunity for radical groups to make their presence felt.
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Daily TribuneThe coming religious festival in Quiapo should be closely watched as it offers a perfect opportunity for radical groups to make their presence felt.
Share
Terror disciples of the Islamic State, or IS, are seeking a revival in the Philippines, according to a regional security expert.
A strike on the country will be an ideological coup since IS will be disrupting a Catholic country close to the United States, while it holds a more practical reason for its chances of success as it believes that the intelligence sector of the country is among the weakest in the region.
The coming religious festival in Quiapo should be closely watched as it offers a perfect opportunity for radical groups to make their presence felt.
Emily Milliken, a Middle East analyst specializing in Yemen, Libya and Gulf interests and senior vice president and lead analyst at Askari Associates, believes that IS has regrouped as she assessed a situation that could complicate the role of the United States as a global peace enforcer.
She cited the attack in the Philippines last month that the Islamic State, or IS, claimed "garnered little international attention."
"Ignoring the threat of the world's most dangerous terrorist group in the Philippines is short-sighted," according to the analyst.
The attack on 2 December targeted a Catholic mass service in the gymnasium at Mindanao State University, killing four and injuring dozens.
The attack had a lot of symbolism. It was timed for the beginning of the annual Mindanao Week of Peace celebrations, and the university is in Marawi, the same city where IS-affiliated groups led a five-month siege in 2017 that killed around 1,000 people.
Also, IS sees American forces as being spread thinly as the US deals with Ukraine in its war against Russia and Israel in the Hamas conflict, while Iran-backed Houthi forces attack maritime interests and Western forces have withdrawn from a slew of jihadist-hit African countries, making the assault on Marawi highly concerning.
Equally troubling is Milliken's view that the attack is not a one-off.
The bombing was preceded by several other IS-claimed operations in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao since August.
IS, in an editorial in its weekly Al-Naba newsletter shortly after the attack, portrayed the Philippines as a "field of jihad" deserving greater support from Muslims worldwide and urged Muslims to travel to the country to participate in jihad.
IS has connections to several local jihadist groups like Maute, Abu Sayyaf, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, and Ansar Khalifa Philippines, which were all recognized by ISIS as a single affiliate in 2016.
Although the number of IS-affiliated fighters is estimated at a few hundred, the terrorists were able to leverage their connections to local clans, politicians, and criminal elements to sustain themselves, according to the geopolitical expert.
The IS disciples have proven their resilience with the latest string of attacks, which came after local security forces killed Abu Zacharia, a Maute leader rumored to be IS's emir in the country, in June.
While intensified military operations have prevented the IS affiliates from holding territory for now, they could easily take advantage of a repositioning of local forces to establish a more lasting presence.
Even confining its attention to the southern Philippines, IS may prove destabilizing to the country.
Milliken said, "If IS continues its string of attacks targeting Marawi and the larger Bangsamoro area, it could derail the already imperiled peace process there ahead of the region's first elections next year."
If it initiates another war, the government may likely review plans to reposition its armed forces for territorial defense and joint security arrangements with the US and its allies, which are more critical now as Washington shifts its focus back to the Middle East amid heightened threats.
