Deterrence counts
“The Philippines being practically a spit away from Taiwan is considered by Beijing to be a key hurdle, particularly as it is a strategic US ally.
Daily Tribune“The Philippines being practically a spit away from Taiwan is considered by Beijing to be a key hurdle, particularly as it is a strategic US ally.
At the San Francisco Summit between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the agenda revolved around the Philippines and Taiwan.
What is transpiring in the West Philippine Sea primarily near Ayungin Shoal is related to the historical claim of China over the West Philippine Sea expanse that includes Taiwan and the rich fishing ground of Filipinos.
Xi bared his cards to Biden, saying that China is determined to reunify "Taiwan with mainland China but the timing has not yet been decided." He added that when the time comes, China's preference is to take Taiwan "peacefully, not by force."
US media described the meeting between the heads of the most powerful nations in the world as "warm" despite the unsettling agenda.
Xi, in a diplomatic tone, made clear to Biden that China will press on with its sovereignty claim over the disputed expanse, including bringing Taiwan into China's embrace.
Beijing's move is expected soon with Xi telegraphing to Biden that he might have only "a few good months left."
The recent maritime confrontations with the Philippines may have a lot of bearing on China's ultimate aim of reunification with Taiwan.
The Philippines being practically a spit away from Taiwan is considered by Beijing to be a key hurdle, particularly as it is a strategic US ally.
The recent expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the US to include several Filipino military bases facing Taiwan where the US can position its assets had ruffled Beijing's feathers.
More recently, American and Chinese military leaders communicated by video link where Chairperson of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown may have taken the opportunity to raise the issue of China's bullying of Philippine vessels in the WPS with his Chinese counterpart, General Li Shang-fu.
On 9 and 10 December, a China Coast Guard assault on a Philippine vessel with a water cannon resulted in severe engine damage to the latter boat that had to be towed to its home port.
Another vessel was rammed by a Chinese boat near Ayungin Shoal where the grounded BRP Sierra Madre serves as a Philippine military outpost.
The so-called gray zone tactics of China include threatening maneuvers by its ships against Philippine vessels exploring for hydrocarbons and natural gas, as well as the frequent harassment of Filipino fishermen. Much earlier, a Chinese patrol boat pointed a military grade laser beam at Filipino sailors.
China's harassment of Philippine resupply missions to its grounded outpost is related to the expanded EDCA and ultimately Beijing's grand design on Taiwan.
Beijing has made its stand clear on the involvement of a third party, particularly the United States, in the sea dispute as it continuously accuses the Philippines of stirring up trouble by acting as a surrogate of the US.
China's uneasiness reveals that the US presence is a deterrent to Beijing's pursuits.
Under the expanded EDCA, the additional US facilities will house pre-positioned military equipment, fuel storage tanks, and shelter for American troops.
China suspects the new US positions are meant for troop deployments in case of strife over Taiwan.
The new US facilities are at the Lal-lo Airport and Camilo Osias Naval Base in Cagayan province, Camp Melchor dela Cruz in Isabela, and a fourth base on Balabac Island in Palawan.
China's tacticians are closely monitoring US reaction to the increasing pressure on the Philippines to test its resolve in keeping its ironclad commitment to its ally. The US actions will probably mirror its determination to defend Taiwan.
A strong US political will to aid in the defense of the Philippines will consequently deter China from creating trouble in Taiwan.