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There have been no indications of coercive economic reprisals by China since the Philippines started publicizing China’s aggressive behavior in the WPS.
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Daily TribuneThere have been no indications of coercive economic reprisals by China since the Philippines started publicizing China’s aggressive behavior in the WPS.
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China has termed the Philippines' approach in the West Philippine Sea conflict as kowtowing to the only superpower, the United States, but the response of the Marcos administration is now considered a model of how a smaller nation should respond to the challenges posed by a more dominant nation.
Regional experts call the carefully weighed steps of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his men "assertive transparency," effectively countering China's aggressiveness in the disputed area in the South China Sea that has not generated negative economic repercussions for the country.
China is known to weaponize trade and investments to secure what it wants from nations it disagrees with, but the ploy has yet to work with the Philippines.
The country has introduced a model for other small nations in the region to follow, according to Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Koh considers the Philippines to have stood out in recent months "as an emerging example of how a smaller, weaker country could stand up against a larger, stronger power in the (West Philippine Sea)."
Under the Marcos strategy, the Philippines has projected newfound assertiveness "not seen in the aftermath of the 2012 Scarborough Shoal incident."
The regional analyst was referring to the standoff between Philippine and Chinese vessels at Scarborough Shoal after the Philippine Navy apprehended Chinese poachers there. China then sent a fleet of militia vessels, never leaving the disputed waters.
Koh said that among the steps the Philippines took that have been considered effective against China was vocally speaking out against Chinese transgressions in its exclusive economic zone, bolstering its longstanding alliance with the United States, cultivating closer security partnerships with other nations such as Australia, India, and Japan, and pushing its defense posture from an internal to an external orientation.
According to Koh, the strategy has given China something to ponder regarding "reputational costs," which are highly valued in Asian culture.
Another maneuver that appears to have worked was openly publicizing sea incidents with China and calling out Beijing's aggression or intimidation, starting from the laser-pointing episode in February.
The "name and shame strategy does appear to have put Beijing on the back foot, perhaps due to the element of surprise more than anything else," Koh said.
He said that turning to media to make China's moves known had not been seen in Southeast Asia before.
The Marcos playbook has produced positive results. Except for activities around the Second Thomas Shoal, China has exhibited less aggressive behavior since its actions were thus "exposed," Koh said.
In August, the Chinese Coast Guard fired a water cannon at a Filipino boat during the latter's rotation and resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal, where the BRP Sierra Madre was grounded, resulting in a further spike in tensions.
The fears expressed by Filipino businessmen have turned out to be unfounded. Koh cited Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr., president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc., who is concurrently honorary chairman of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, who revealed that some of the potential big industrial investors from China who were keen to invest in the country after Marcos's state visit to Beijing in January 2023 became "jittery" or paused their inquiries with the PCCI following the Second Thomas Shoal flare-up.
So far, Koh said, there have been no indications of coercive economic reprisals by China since the Philippines started publicizing China's aggressive behavior in the WPS.
Trade and investment data published by the Philippine Statistics Authority revealed a sharp rise in trade with China up to September.
Even in the wake of the maritime hubbub since early 2023, Chinese investments picked up from 0.07 percent in the first quarter to 0.38 percent in the second and spiked to 6.76 percent in the third.
Truth and transparency matter in upholding sovereign interests, the Philippine experience shows.
