Only path to peace

Global security experts are convinced that Israel must finish the war against Hamas as soon as possible since it offers the only road to a peaceful solution by stopping the threat of terrorism in the region, if not the world.

Allowing Hamas to survive is not an option since letting the terrorist group continue to run the Gaza Strip will mean that the Palestinians will be radicalized, and peace will be impossible.

Anthony Cordesman, chairperson emeritus for strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which is advising the US government in the current conflict, said the outcome of the war in Gaza is already evident.

Cordesman, who has been awarded the Distinguished Service Medal by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, discussed the outlook for the ongoing conflict, including his forecast that the war will be contained.

"Israel is so strong relative to the terrorist groups that it can both defeat Hamas and establish almost any new security structure in Gaza that it wants," Cordesman said. "Israel does not seem to face any major direct military threat from its Arab neighbors."

His optimism is based on the belief that Lebanon is in chaos and the Hezbollah organization that it supports is only capable of "raising the ante in terms of missile attacks and cross-border infiltration but is vulnerable to far superior Israel air and missile attacks."

He said Egypt is strong in military terms but is no longer organized and prepared to fight Israel "and is caught up in its economic crisis and political problems."

According to Cordesman, Jordan "has only limited military forces, is not organized to fight Israel, and has its own internal economic and political challenges."

"Syria's Assad regime and its military forces are still caught up in its civil war, and an unstable Iraq cannot project meaningful forces into the Levant," he assessed.

Among his bold forecasts is that Iran, in an odd way, may add to Israel's regional security.

Iran can threaten and provoke Israel, provide money, and supply limited arms to Palestinian fighters.

"It might carry out limited raids against some Israeli targets. But Iran cannot project meaningful military power other than long-range missile strikes to challenge Israel and faces the threat of far higher levels of Israel retaliation," the geopolitical expert pointed out.

Other Arab nations are wary of the intentions of Iran. Cordesman said Iran presents a severe military, political, and sectarian threat to the Arab Gulf states.

"This threat forces them to focus on Iran and limit any support of Hamas and the Palestinians. The Arab Gulf states may provide some aid money and political support. Still, they will continue to focus on Iran and not take any serious military action or risk a major political confrontation with Israel or split with the United States," he said.

Based on Cordesman's estimation, the outcome of the war may end the "Two-State Solution," and in its place will be a "No State" setup with four Palestinian enclaves that Israel will tightly control.

While the two-state solution may not be dead, the ongoing conflict points to it as close to death.

The government adviser said the Palestinian Authority, or PA, has serious levels of corruption, cannot reshape a weak and crippled economy, and its efforts to create effective security forces have not been effective enough to deal with current challenges.

Hamas came to power in Gaza in 2006 and 2007, in large part because of the ineffectiveness and corruption of the Palestine Liberation Organization.

"All diplomatic good intentions and rhetoric aside, continuing to focus on the two-state solution will only continue a history where every effort to create such a lasting peace since 1948 has led to new wars and new tensions between Israel and the Palestinians," Cordesman averred.

The immediate solution, thus, is the elimination of Hamas and all terror groups in the enclaves while Israel works for a stable political and economic structure for Palestinians and Israelis alike in the troubled regions.