Trump’s power hand
In short, don’t expect Trump ‘to go gentle into the political twilight of his career,’ particularly since he remains president of the United States and retains broad powers to use America’s military might.
A fool’s errand. That’s the cautious consensus among many observers when asked to predict what impetuous US President Donald Trump will do next after millions of Americans resoundingly turned against him.
But while it’s tough to predict what Trump will do or not do next, American and other foreign analysts, however, say they do know some things.
And, what they know revolves around the fact that “embattled at home, the president will turn his attention abroad,” as one news report headlined it, and “that is worrying for the world,” including us over here.
Seeking solace abroad to recoup his political standing and authority, however, isn’t unique to Trump. Most American presidents typically focused more on foreign policy when they faced domestic troubles.
“Foreign policy is where there are (the) fewest constraints,” says an observer.
In Trump’s case, he certainly still has the power to shake the world. As Filipino sociologist Randy David perceptively put it: “The midterms show that American democracy can still check an overbearing presidency… Many Americans may want less reckless leadership while retaining the belief that their country has a special right to shape events abroad.”
In short, don’t expect Trump “to go gentle into the political twilight of his career,” particularly since he remains president of the United States and retains broad powers to use America’s military might.
So, while losing both houses of the US Congress limits Trump’s capacity to dictate, maneuver, and disrupt at home, it’s likely to be different abroad.
Given all that, it’s therefore normal that around the world friends and foes of Trump closely watched the US midterms and are nervously poking around for what it may mean for global alliances, partnerships, war and peace.
As we know by now, Trump’s foreign policy is “radical and hyperactive,” where as one news report put it, Trump has “wielded the powers of the presidency like a sledgehammer, especially in foreign policy,” where he frequently bypasses (the US) Congress.
“Now it could become more so,” reports the Economist magazine, as “Mr. Trump has unfinished business in Iran and Cuba that could drag America deeper into the Middle East and Latin America. His flirtation with great power carve-ups, including summitry with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, could herald a darker world order — and difficulties.”
The summit the Economist refers to is the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting on 18-19 November in Shenzhen, China.
Mr. Trump at Shenzhen, says the Economist, “is keen on a three-way meeting with Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi…that is ostensibly also to discuss nuclear arms control. Eventually he may again try to broker a peace in Ukraine.”
Ukraine, of course, is another one of Mr. Trump’s unfinished business.
At any rate, APEC comes immediately after next week’s ASEAN Summit, where Asian and some Western leaders will have personal opportunities for gauging and assessing Trump’s current mood and inclinations first hand.