Anybody’s ballgame

Every time the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) season starts, someone tries to convince you the preseason results mean nothing.

I’ve never quite believed that. Preseason tournaments are messy, rotations are experimental, and results should be read with caution — but they still tell you something real about depth, chemistry, and which players a team leans on when the games start to matter.

But after going through the first round of UAAP basketball, with National University (NU) on top, Far Eastern University (FEU) having logged the best winning run, and Adamson University having beaten FEU and University of Santo Tomas (UST), this year’s competition has six equally balanced teams and is going to be a wild and unpredictable season.

Heading into the second round of elimination games of Season 89, that evidence points me toward a Final Four of University of the Philippines (UP), UST, FEU and NU, but with the current turnout of games, these three other teams are threatening to upset that quadrant — De La Salle University, Adamson and Ateneo de Manila University.

Let’s start with the safest pick on the board. UP is my No. 1 for a simple reason — I don’t see a single point of failure. Depth, size, experience, new talent: all of it is there, and none of it depends on one player carrying the load for fourteen games.

The real test isn’t whether UP is good. It’s whether that preseason dominance or first-round leadership survives skirmishes with opponents who have spent time now specifically figuring out how to cut them down to size. I still like their odds. Call it 10-4, maybe 9-5.

UST is almost dead even with UP’s chances and genuinely shifts the odds to a virtual coin toss. A team doesn’t win Pinoyliga and AsiaBasket and finish runner-up at the NSAC World Invitational. That’s a résumé, not a fluke. With the old guards gone — Acido, Akowe, and Llemit are stepping into far bigger roles — and UST has already shown, in actual games against actual Season 89 contenders, that Coach Pido’s system works without its old stars. I have them at 9-5 or 8-6, and honestly, they’re the team most likely to make me regret picking UP to be at prime position.

FEU is a looming dark horse, and I’ll admit it’s the pick I’m most comfortable defending. The talent is clearly better now with Mongcopa and ace rookie Cabonilas in a lineup which has surely matured from the FEU rosters of recent years. What I don’t know yet is whether Coach Sean Chambers can turn preseason and a first-round winning run into UAAP-tested final-round consistency. If he can, FEU finishes ahead of UST. If he can’t, this whole prediction collapses into something far more conventional than what is expected.

NU is all out to repeat being the league leader in the elimination round as they did last year but probably has better chances of going past the Final Four this time. Being in a prime position after the first round and with their steady shooters Alfanta and Jumamoy, expect the Bulldogs to gun for the finals.

La Salle was Final Four material, but having lost Mike Phillips’ rebounding and rim protection is not a small thing to replace, but core reliables like Cortez, Pablo and star rookie Tovera are still there to hold the fort. Coach Topex has a proven program to bounce back from a mediocre first round, and as the defending champion, expect the Animo spirit to drive the Green Archers to a strong finish.

Which brings me to the two other wild cards — the other two teams that are still in flux and most capable of upsetting the final standings: Adamson and Ateneo.

Adamson took down FEU, La Salle and UST in good fashion and has proven itself as a top defensive team in the first round. Ateneo had the Pinoyliga run to the Big Dance Final Four, where they lost to eventual champion UST by single digits, which tells you the talent hasn’t disappeared. I have either of these teams — La Salle, Adamson and Ateneo at fifth or sixth. I also have serious doubts about that placement.

The bottomline conclusion: Anything can still happen. But that’s what the UAAP is all about this season. It’s For Everyone.