Rice farmers in Occidental Mindoro work on improving production as the province prepares for the possible effects of a strengthening El Niño. Government data show Mindoro accounts for more than half of MIMAROPA’s palay output. Photograph courtesy of PIO Occidental Mindoro.
PIO Occidental Mindoro
CALAPAN CITY, Oriental Mindoro — Mindoro is facing heightened agricultural risks from an intensifying El Niño as government data show declining rice yields across the island.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said a strong El Niño is currently active in the tropical Pacific and is expected to intensify into a “very strong” event toward the end of 2026 and persist through the first half of 2027.
The outlook carries particular significance for Mindoro, one of MIMAROPA’s major rice-producing areas.
Philippine Statistics Authority data show Oriental Mindoro produced 176,282 metric tons of palay during the first half of 2026, while Occidental Mindoro produced 135,811 metric tons.
Together, the two provinces accounted for about 57.5 percent of MIMAROPA’s total palay production during the period.
Oriental Mindoro’s palay production declined 5.1 percent from a year earlier, while its average yield fell 4.3 percent.
Occidental Mindoro, meanwhile, recorded a 6.2-percent increase in palay production, although its average yield dropped 16.7 percent during the first semester.
The province could be particularly vulnerable to irrigation disruptions, with 98.6 percent of Occidental Mindoro’s first-semester palay production coming from irrigated farms. Oriental Mindoro, meanwhile, obtained 87.1 percent of its production from irrigated areas.
The Department of Agriculture has stepped up preparations for El Niño, including irrigation support, planting-calendar adjustments, crop diversification and other measures aimed at limiting losses.
The agency estimates that rice production nationwide could fall by as much as 700,000 metric tons, or about 3.5 percent of its annual production target, under a strong El Niño scenario.
PAGASA has advised farmers to conserve water, maintain irrigation systems, harvest rainwater and use drought-tolerant crops as dry conditions intensify.
The impact on Mindoro will largely depend on rainfall and irrigation availability during the coming cropping season, putting greater pressure on local water resources and agricultural preparedness.
