The global economy has remained surprisingly resilient three months into the Middle East conflict, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), although the fund warned that energy-importing countries with limited policy flexibility, such as the Philippines, remain vulnerable to prolonged high energy prices.

In a recent blog post, the IMF said the world economy has so far avoided a major slowdown despite higher commodity prices, inflationary pressures, and tighter financial conditions.

“The combination of economic resilience and technological advancements has helped to cushion the impact of the energy supply shock on growth at the global level,” the IMF said, citing strong economic momentum in the United States and China, as well as continued investment in artificial intelligence and data centers.

However, the IMF noted that the relatively upbeat global outlook masks growing vulnerabilities among energy-importing economies, particularly in emerging Asia. These countries have been grappling with higher fuel costs, rising bond yields, currency depreciation, and capital outflow pressures.

The Philippines remains especially exposed to energy market disruptions. According to the Department of Energy, about 99 percent of the country's fuel imports pass through the Middle East, making it highly sensitive to disruptions along key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

The IMF noted that retail gasoline prices in some emerging Asian economies have risen by about 40 percent since the conflict began. Higher energy costs have also pushed up fertilizer and food prices, raising concerns over food security and inflation across the region.

In the Philippines, pump prices climbed into the triple-digit range per liter in April, contributing to a three-year high in headline inflation.

Reflecting these challenges, the IMF in April downgraded its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 4.1 percent from 5.6 percent, citing “the war shock compounding the negative base effects from a weaker-than-expected 2025 outturn related to a sharp decline in public investment and confidence.”

The IMF said the global outlook remains highly dependent on the duration and severity of disruptions to energy supplies. It urged policymakers to remain focused on maintaining price stability and fiscal discipline amid continued uncertainty.