The closer the Senate moves toward the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, the clearer it becomes that the much-publicized fight over the Senate presidency was never really the main event but merely the preliminary bout.

The Sherwin Gatchalian bloc already commands 12 senators following the defection to it of Sen. Francis Escudero. Now, with Sen. Joel Villanueva widely expected to cross over as well, whether during a special session or when Congress resumes in July, Gatchalian securing the 13 votes needed to formally assume the Senate presidency appears less a question of if than of when.

What comes after is where the stakes become genuinely consequential in what has evolved into a take-no-prisoners clash between the Marcoses and the Dutertes.

After all, there is hell to pay for President Marcos after Rodrigo Duterte was shipped off by his government to detention in The Hague. 

This is the same Rodrigo Duterte who allowed Ferdinand Marcos Sr. to be interred at the Libingan ng mga Bayani, the same one who let Sara slide down to vice president in 2022 so Bongbong could run for president and win with the votes of the hordes of Duterte followers.

Whatever legal explanations accompanied that episode, the reality is that millions of Duterte supporters now see it as the ultimate betrayal by a former ally. The collapse of the Marcos-Duterte alliance has ensured that reconciliation ceased being an option long ago.

Which is why the number that truly matters is not 13. It is 16. Under the Constitution, the conviction of a Vice President in an impeachment trial requires the concurrence of two-thirds of the Senate’s 24 members. 

Sixteen votes will remove Sara Duterte from office. Sixteen votes will permanently disqualify her from seeking the presidency in 2028. Sixteen votes will eliminate perhaps the strongest challenger to whoever will eventually carry the Marcos banner.

It is difficult to escape the conclusion that those 16 votes have become the true objective of the political struggle now unfolding. That reality explains why Senator Ping Lacson’s recent proposal deserves more attention than it initially received.

At first glance, the suggestion that detained senators be transported to the impeachment court under jail escort so they could participate as senator-judges sounds like the premise of a political comedy, the sort of absurd scenario that scriptwriters would reject for being too implausible.

Yet Lacson’s concern reflects an emerging problem that few seem willing to discuss openly. What happens if the Senate suddenly finds itself short of the very senators needed either to conduct the trial or to convict?

That question is no longer entirely hypothetical.

The Ombudsman has disclosed that several senators are being investigated in connection with the flood control controversy, while existing legal troubles continue to hang over other members of the chamber.

One need not believe in grand conspiracies to observe that these investigations arrived at a particularly interesting moment, when every senator’s presence may determine not only the composition of the Senate majority but also the outcome of the impeachment trial itself.

Should even a handful of senators find themselves detained, suspended, or otherwise prevented from participating, the mathematics becomes unexpectedly complicated. The Constitution is quite explicit about the number required for conviction. It is entirely indifferent to how difficult that number may be to obtain.

The irony is difficult to miss.

The same political and legal pressures that may help reshape the Senate majority could simultaneously complicate the effort to secure the votes needed for conviction. 

Every senator who becomes unavailable alters the equation. Every investigation introduces uncertainty. Every arrest, suspension, or detention transforms a straightforward counting exercise into a more complicated political calculation.

As the trial approaches, public attention remains fixed on personalities, defections and leadership struggles. Yet beneath all the maneuvering lies a simpler reality.

The battle over the Senate presidency is nearing resolution. The battle over Sara Duterte’s political future is only beginning. And before anyone can count to 16, they must first make sure there are enough senators left in the room to do the counting.

The Ombudsman has a lot to say about that.