The Department of Agriculture (DA) has revived its El Niño task force as the government moves to shield the farm sector from another potentially damaging dry spell that could slash rice output, disrupt food supply and fuel inflation.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. warned that a strong El Niño later this year could cut national rice production by as much as 700,000 metric tons, threatening both farmers’ incomes and food security.

“It is imperative that we put in place interventions that mitigate the impact of El Niño on agriculture, the livelihoods of farmers, fisherfolk, and others in the value chain, as well as its adverse effects on food supply, prices, and consumers,” Tiu Laurel said.

The move comes as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration projected a 92-percent probability that a moderate to strong El Niño may develop in the fourth quarter of 2026 and persist into early 2027.

The agriculture sector is still recovering from the effects of the 2023-2024 El Niño episode, which caused an estimated P57.78 billion in agricultural losses, the highest recorded damage from the climate phenomenon in recent years.

Corn suffered the heaviest losses during the previous dry spell, followed by rice, fisheries, coconut, cassava and high-value crops. The impact also dragged down overall farm output in 2024, with Philippine Statistics Authority data showing agricultural production declined 2.2 percent to P483.58 billion.

To minimize losses, the DA is preparing a range of interventions focused on protecting crop production and stabilizing food supply. These include cloud-seeding operations, expansion of solar-powered irrigation systems, crop diversification programs and adjustments in planting schedules to better align with weather conditions.

Government planners are also closely monitoring the possible impact of prolonged dry conditions on food prices, particularly rice, which remains among the country’s most politically and economically sensitive commodities.

Officials warned that lower harvests could tighten supply chains and place additional pressure on consumers already facing elevated living costs.

Tiu Laurel said strengthening climate resilience in agriculture has become critical as extreme weather events increasingly threaten both rural livelihoods and national food stability.

He added that early intervention and coordinated planning are necessary to reduce the economic and social impact of another severe El Niño episode.