As the impeachment trial of Sara Duterte draws closer, with proceedings set to begin on 6 July, an analyst said the participation of key public officials could influence electoral surveys ahead of the 2028 national elections.

WR Numero president Cleve Arguelles said the trial could reshape public perception not only of Duterte as a potential presidential contender, but also of senators and House prosecutors involved in the proceedings.

“I think malaki po yung magiging epekto ng impeachment trial. There’s a lot of uncertainties but definitely lahat po yung involved na participants, from the VP herself, to the allies of the VP, majority, minority senator-judges and the prosecution team itself, lahat po iyon magkakaroon ng panibagong public perception ‘yung mga kababayan natin,” he said during a media forum over the weekend.

Arguelles said viewers who closely follow the proceedings tend to remember the performance of lawmakers and may use those impressions in choosing future leaders.

The analyst noted that the public often evaluates how senator-judges react to and decide on cases based on evidence presented during impeachment proceedings, particularly whether they continue supporting political allies despite evidence.

“So halimbawa mayroon po tayong mga nakakitaan in the previous impeachment trials na mga senador na talagang nagpakita na kakampi lang sila doon sa kanilang kaalyado kahit pa yung ebidensya ay pagtakpan, halimbawa doon sa impeachment trial ni President Estrada,” he said.

“May mga nanganib sa sumunod na eleksyon dahil po doon sa hindi nagustuhan ng publiko yung kanilang performance bilang senator-judges,” he added.

Arguelles cited the 2001 impeachment trial of former President Joseph Estrada, during which 11 senators voted against opening the controversial “second envelope” containing alleged bank records tied to Estrada.

In the succeeding elections, senators John Henry Osmeña, Robert Jaworski, and Francisco Tatad failed to secure Senate seats.

Arguelles clarified that impeachment proceedings could also benefit certain personalities.

“Meron din naman House Prosecutors na nagkaroon ng national profile, national public support dahil doon sa kanilang performance,” he said.

Recent surveys also showed Duterte was no longer the clear frontrunner for the 2028 presidential race.

A survey showed that a potential tandem between Leni Robredo and Raffy Tulfo received 44 percent support, edging out a possible Duterte-Imee Marcos pairing, which garnered 40 percent.

Speaking on the survey, Zia Alonto Adiong of Lanao del Sur said the results reflected growing public doubts over Duterte’s refusal to directly answer allegations against her.

“Sara was hit because she did not want to face the committee. She was bent on hiding, doing press conferences, and attacking the process. When the evidence is not being addressed at the proper forum, the public themselves would question why they are afraid of showing up,” Adiong said.

“This is not a prediction, but it is a clear sign. If before, the Duterte-Marcos alignment had a big lead, now they are being overtaken; it only means something happened. And that is the loud voice of evidence, which VP Sara’s camp chooses to ignore,” he added.

Duterte has yet to formally respond to the summons issued by the Senate, which convened as an impeachment court on 18 May following receipt of the Articles of Impeachment from the House of Representatives.

Her legal team earlier said they were prepared to comply with the Senate’s directives.

“We will comply and file the appropriate response in accordance with the Constitution and applicable rules,” the lawyers said in a statement.