Goods export growth across the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is expected to weaken sharply over the next three years as rising trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions weigh on regional commerce.

In its latest Regional Trends Analysis, the APEC Policy Support Unit projected export growth across member economies to slow to between 3.3 percent and 3.7 percent from 2026 to 2028, significantly lower than the 7.6-percent expansion recorded in 2025.

“Near-term trade outlook points to a slowdown, as elevated risks could outweigh still-resilient demand,” the report said.

The study warned that growing use of tariffs and anti-dumping measures is increasing trade fragmentation across the region, adding pressure on supply chains and business costs.

“We are seeing supply chain pressures intensify across the region as freight costs on intra-APEC routes continue to rise, driven by higher fuel prices and slowing port traffic,” said Eldo Simanjuntak, researcher at the APEC Policy Support Unit.

The report also forecasts economic growth across the Asia-Pacific region to ease to 3.1 percent this year before slowing further to 3 percent in 2027 as more than half of APEC economies experience weaker output expansion.

According to the report, escalating tensions in the Middle East have worsened the outlook by pushing global oil prices sharply higher and disrupting shipping and logistics networks.

APEC said oil prices surged by 52.8 percent between February and March 2026, climbing from $68 to $103.9 per barrel, triggering higher transport and food costs across the region.

“Despite the region’s short-term resilience, economic prospects have been revised down in some economies amid geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions,” the report said.

Carlos Kuriyama said households and businesses are already feeling the effects of rising energy costs and weakening trade conditions.

“The region enters 2026 with short-term resilience intact, but knock-on energy price shocks, weakening demand, intensifying supply chain disruptions and narrowing space to respond to economic shocks are casting a longer shadow over the medium-term outlook,” Kuriyama said.

“It is ordinary households and businesses that are feeling the consequences most,” he added.