Pump prices for petroleum products are expected to rise again next week, with diesel and gasoline likely to see fresh hikes amid tight global supply and lingering geopolitical uncertainties, according to an industry source.

Based on the first four trading days’ Mean of Platts Singapore and foreign exchange averages, diesel prices may increase by around P1.00 to P1.30 per liter, while gasoline prices could go up by P1.20 to P1.50 per liter in the week of 25 May.

This would bring estimated Metro Manila retail pump prices to around P73.22 to P94.03 per liter for diesel and P73.81 to P109.61 per liter for gasoline, depending on the grade.

“Diesel is supported by higher crude prices and unresolved supply disruptions, with feedstock procurement continuing to remain a challenge for Asian refiners,” the source said.

The source added that gasoline prices are also being driven higher as “global markets continue to remain tight, with supplies from Asia possibly moving to other regions amid reduced production in Europe, and demand from the US accelerates with the onset of the peak summer season.”

Despite projected increases, recent movements in the global oil market have shown some easing in prices due to developments in ongoing peace negotiations in the Middle East.

“However, crude and refined products prices have eased down recently due to positive developments in the peace talks, with signals that negotiations is in the final stages,” the source said.

“Nevertheless, volatility can be expected as uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East continue to linger,” the source added.

The source also noted that additional downward pressure on prices came from the extension of sanctions waivers on Russian oil and hopes of improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Crude oil and refined products were initially higher earlier this week on worries that a major strike on Iran would result in another major escalation in the war, but prices have since eased down after the US military strike was called off,” the source said.

This week, the Department of Energy imposed fuel price hikes of P1.21 per liter for gasoline across all grades and P2.82 per liter for diesel. Meanwhile, kerosene provided the lone relief, with prices set to decrease by P2.21 per liter.