Fresh fuel hike looms as global supply risks intensify

Motorists should brace for another round of fuel price hikes next week, with gasoline poised for an increase of around P2 to P3 per liter, while diesel is expected to climb by P1 to P2 per liter.

An industry source said Friday the anticipated adjustments reflect a surge in global oil prices during the 27 to 30 April trading window, with markets shut on 1 May for Labor Day, effectively locking in the week’s gains.

Break diesel’s three-week slide

The hike will break diesel’s three-week slide and keep gasoline prices on an upward trend.

The source said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East still drove the rally. Iran’s continued grip on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows, has rattled supply expectations, while tighter United States naval pressure on Iranian ports is raising fears of a prolonged disruption.

Adding to the upward pressure, fresh US data showed larger-than-expected draws in crude and refined fuel inventories, signaling tightening supply amid steady demand.

The direction is clear

With both geopolitical risks and market fundamentals aligned, the direction is clear: larger-than-expected draws in crude and refined fuel inventories, signaling tightening supply amid steady demand.

This week, fuel prices moved in mixed directions, with gasoline increasing while diesel and kerosene extended their third straight week of rollbacks.

Gasoline prices rose by P0.53 per liter across all variants, while diesel and kerosene dropped by P12.94 and P15.71 per liter, respectively, according to the Department of Energy.

Ample domestic supply help cushion the market

Despite the increases in gasoline, ample domestic supply levels helped cushion the market, with the country maintaining around 54 days of fuel inventory as of 24 April.

Gasoline stocks were estimated at nearly 54 days, diesel at about 55 days, and kerosene significantly higher at around 169 days, indicating sufficient supply to meet demand in the near term.