Senate turmoil, Bato ICC warrant could shape VP Duterte impeachment trial — analysts

Legal and political analysts said the International Criminal Court warrant against Ronald dela Rosa and his sudden return to the Senate may influence the political environment surrounding the impeachment proceedings against incumbent Vice President Sara Duterte.

During a televised interview, analysts said the dramatic developments in the Senate unfolded at the same time the House of Representatives transmitted Duterte’s impeachment complaint, creating what they described as a highly politicized atmosphere ahead of the 2028 elections.

“Nothing exists in a vacuum. Everything is really about timing and orchestration,” Political analyst Prof. Froilan Calilung said.

Calilung said the Senate appeared to “rain on the Congress’ parade,” as the dramatic return of Ronald dela Rosa and the change in Senate leadership overshadowed the House proceedings.

The House earlier voted to transmit the impeachment complaint against Duterte to the Senate, with 257 lawmakers supporting the move.

But analysts said the recent Senate reorganization, seen as favorable to Duterte allies, could complicate the impeachment trial.

Calilung said the new Senate leadership may introduce procedural delays, jurisdictional questions, and other challenges that could slow proceedings.

He specifically cited the role of Alan Peter Cayetano, whom he described as having a different approach to impeachment proceedings compared to previous Senate leaders.

“These delays may create a tremendous impact,” Calilung said, adding that timing is crucial in impeachment cases because prolonged proceedings could weaken public interest and alter political perceptions.

The issue was further amplified by the reemergence of dela Rosa, a close Duterte ally, who is the subject of a secret ICC warrant related to the Duterte administration’s anti-drug campaign.

Dela Rosa is being pursued for allegations of crimes against humanity of murder, with prosecutors citing at least 32 specific deaths under his watch between 3 July 2016 to the end of April 2018.

University of the Philippines law professor Paulo Tamase said the Senate’s handling of the issue could affect public perceptions of institutional accountability while the chamber prepares to act as an impeachment court.

He questioned whether senators were portraying themselves as beyond the reach of legal processes if they resisted the possible enforcement of a warrant against one of their members.

“Kung ginagamit yung Senado upang iwasan yung pag-serve ng warrant na iyon, ang tingin ba ng Senado ay above the law sila?” Tamase said.

Tamase added that ICC warrants are not always publicly disclosed and may legally apply even to sitting officials, though local enforcement could still require action from Philippine courts.

Despite concerns that the Senate has become more sympathetic to the Duterte camp, Calilung noted that the strong House vote showed many lawmakers still wanted the impeachment process to move forward.

He added that surveys indicating public support for the trial likely influenced lawmakers’ decisions.

Still, both analysts warned that the continuing political drama could deepen public frustration.

“Marami sa ating kababayan ang nakararanas ngayon ng political fatigue,” Calilung said.