PARIS (AFP) — The world may be headed for a year of unusually severe wildfires driven by climate change and a potentially strong El Niño event, researchers warned Tuesday.

Wildfire activity has surged early in 2026, with the burned area already about 50 percent above average for this time of year, according to Theodore Keeping of Imperial College London.

Fires have scorched more than 163 million hectares between January and early May, roughly 20 percent above the previous record since global tracking began in 2012.

“This year the global fire season has got off to a very fast start,” Keeping said.

El Niño, a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that disrupts global weather patterns, has not yet fully developed but is expected to intensify. Scientists say it increases the risk of drought and extreme heat, while adding to long-term warming driven by fossil fuel emissions.

The last major El Niño contributed to record global temperatures in 2023 and 2024, and forecasters warn the upcoming event could be even stronger.

“The likelihood of harmful extreme fires potentially could be the highest we’ve seen in recent history if a strong El Niño does develop,” Keeping said.

Wildfire records have already been broken in parts of West Africa, the Sahel, Sudan and South Sudan. Asia has seen nearly 40 percent more burned area than its previous record year in 2014.

The United States and Australia have also experienced unusually extensive fire activity.

Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said the combination of climate change and El Niño could drive “unprecedented weather extremes,” but stressed that El Niño itself is a natural cycle.

“Climate change is the reason to freak out,” she said, “as it gets worse and worse and worse.”