Evidence against Sara is strong

As of early May, the chances of Vice President Sara Duterte beating her impeachment in the House of Representatives appeared very low, with lawmakers and observers describing the evidence against her as “strong” and the political tide heavily against her.

Here is the situation as of May 2026:

1. House Committee Approval: On 4 May, the House Committee on Justice, finding probable cause, unanimously approved (55-0) the committee report and the articles of impeachment.

2. Plenary Vote Looming: The complaint was brought to the House plenary for voting, expected around 11 May. Proponents believed they had “almost 200” votes, far exceeding the 106 votes needed (one-third of House members) to impeach her and send the case to the Senate.

3. Evidence Cited: The complaints, backed by NBI investigation reports, focused on her alleged misuse of confidential funds (P612.5 million), unexplained wealth, and grave threats made against Ferdinand President Marcos Jr.

4. Senate Hurdle: While a House impeachment is increasingly likely, a conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds vote (16 of 24 senators). While the upper chamber is preparing, analysts suggest a conviction there may be more difficult to secure.

Political Survival Strategy: Analysts and observers have opined that resigning could be an option for Sara to avoid a guilty verdict, which would prohibit her from running for office again.

While resignation would mean she is no longer Vice President, it does not automatically eliminate the potential of the Senate barring her from holding public office in the future, depending on the legal interpretation the Senate may adopt.

How is the President reacting to these developments?

Following the 4 May committee approval of the articles of impeachment, Marcos’s reaction centered on the following key points.

1. “Not My Job”: The President has repeatedly stated that he has “no action” on the specific developments, emphasizing that impeachment is the constitutional mandate of the House and the Senate, not the executive branch.

2. Adherence to Due Process: Through the Malacañang Press Office, he has expressed his primary concern that the proceedings follow the law and the Constitution.

3. Distance from Complaints: Marcos had noted the complaints were not filed by his allies but by independent groups. Observers, however, pointed out that prominent allies, including his son, Rep. Sandro Marcos, had actively supported the process in the House.

4. Avoidance of Political Distraction: Marcos had compared the process to a standard investigation—similar to the flood control probe and other probes directed at himself earlier in the year—saying it “distracted” from government work.

5. Preparedness for Senate Trial: As the case moves to the plenary, the Palace has reiterated that once transmitted, the matter will entirely be in the hands of the Senate, which the President views as an independent body.

While he initially voiced his opposition to the idea of an impeachment in early 2025, describing it as a “waste of time,” Marcos’s more recent public comments acknowledged that the process must “take its course” because the constitutional mechanism has been triggered.

Email: arturobesana2@gmail.com