The Department of Agriculture (DA) is preparing for a high-probability El Niño event that could disrupt farm output, raise food prices, and weigh on economic growth.

“It is no longer a question of whether we will experience another El Niño after the 2024 episode that undermined rice harvests. The only question that needs to be answered is its intensity,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said over the weekend.

Government agencies are moving to mitigate risks as forecasts showed a 92 percent likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño, with some models pointing to a potential “super” event that could sharply reduce rainfall and strain water supply.

The DA has directed its Masagana Rice Industry Development Program, led by Undersecretary Christopher V. Morales, to prepare for worst-case scenarios, with support from the Philippine Rice Research Institute and other units. Planning is underway amid rising farm input costs due to a national energy emergency.

PhilRice executive director John de Leon said projections based on ENSO outlooks highlight the scale of the risk, including possible temperature increases of up to 2.2°C.

Authorities are reviewing rainfall forecasts and water availability to recalibrate planting strategies.

Morales said measures may include shifting to less water-intensive crops, such as mung beans, adjusting planting calendars, and accelerating the deployment of solar-powered irrigation systems.

The DA is also coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration to manage water allocation and ensure irrigation systems can support farms during prolonged dry spells.

The preparations follow a 2.2 percent decline in agricultural output in 2024, driven by a 4.2 percent contraction in the crops sector, which accounts for 56 percent of total farm production. Rice and corn were among the hardest hit.