WPS policy debate flags risks to oil, gas prospects

A policy divide over the Philippines’ approach in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) is raising concerns about potential risks to oil and gas development, among other issues, following competing interpretations of the 2016 arbitral ruling.

Retired Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio said in a media statement on Wednesday that a proposal by former diplomats that pushed for closer engagement with China and joint resource development could misrepresent the legal basis for the country’s energy rights.

“The Award did not say this because this would mean the utter destruction of UNCLOS,” Carpio said. “This ‘conclusion’ of the paper written by retired diplomats is laughable,” he added.

The group of retired diplomats, including retired ambassadors Raul Rabe, Jose Syjuco Jr., Nelson Laviña, Generoso Calonge, Jesus Yabes, George Reyes, Lamberto Monsanto, Lourdes Morales, and Virgilio Reyes Jr., argued for a “rapprochement with China” and joint exploitation of resources such as oil and natural gas, particularly in areas like Reed Bank.

The WPS remains central to the country’s energy prospects. 

Reed Bank or Recto Bank, within the country’s exclusive economic zone, is among the key areas believed to contain significant natural gas reserves.

Department of Energy data indicated the area may contain more than 6 million barrels of oil and over 7 billion cubic feet of natural gas, classified as undiscovered resources.

Analysts also said the debate could affect investor confidence in offshore energy projects, where legal clarity is critical.

Jeffrey Ordaniel, president of the West Philippine Sea Institute, warned that the proposal risks shifting away from rules-based governance.

“This runs counter to the Philippines’ long-standing commitment to international law and peaceful dispute resolution,” he said.

“Despite a lack of actual progress, those episodes of giving China preferential treatment handed Beijing propaganda materials to manufacture a false atmosphere of cooperation and compromise while evading accountability for its continued coercion,” Ordaniel said.

Dr. Renato de Castro of the Stratbase Institute also cautioned against relying too heavily on diplomacy.

“Relying solely on diplomacy to pursue a policy of hedging is simply appeasement that emboldens China to be more expansionist and aggressive in the West Philippine Sea,” he said.

Amid global uncertainties, particularly tensions in the Middle East, the Department of Foreign Affairs earlier said Manila and Beijing have discussed the need to ensure stable access to energy and fertilizers, as well as potential cooperation in renewable energy, trade, and agriculture.