Then suddenly the difficult neighbors, friends of the US by the way, are in the playground, right where Xi can see them, doing drills, lifting weights, buying ships from Japan. Not hiding it. Very public. Terrible for the hair.
China is having a rather unfortunate hair day. Japan just sold an armada of 11 seriously shiny warships to Australia. Seven billion worth. And suddenly the neighborhood’s keen on shopping for muscle. Because of China.
They’re cranky because, for years, Beijing thought it ran the neighborhood. Big presence, everybody adjusts, nobody f***s with the bear. That was the vibe.
Then suddenly the difficult neighbors, friends of the US by the way, are in the playground, right where Xi can see them, doing drills, lifting weights, buying ships from Japan. Not hiding it. Very public. Terrible for the hair.
One country does it, others will get ideas. You’ve got New Zealand peeking over the fence like, “Where’d you get those?”
So China rolls out a cartoon: Sanae Takaichi. Brings up its World War 2 past: “Peace sold out!” Potsdam Declaration. Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution. “No war. No force.”
A familiar instrument for a familiar anxiety. Can’t stop what’s happening now—you spook everyone with what happened then. Fear is the argument. The problem is the region’s not watching the old movie anymore. They’re watching who’s making the noise right now.
Who said Japan smashed Article 9? Please. “No war” only became “no offensive war.” Self-defense? Always yes. Thus, the Japan Self-Defense Forces: full branches, top gear. Labeled “defensive.” Very clever.
Then a big pivot. Still legal. “Defending international peace.” Now they had Japanese boots in Iraq. And, under tight rules, exports. Australia? Still called “supporting peace.”
“International peace” covers a lot of ground: training deployments, ships for partners; they can get a little cocky. Except kick the door in first. They’re not the IDF.
China can say, “You’re breaking the spirit!” No. You’re breaking the neighbors’ comfort level.
Japan’s not even pretending to sit in the back anymore, and shows allies like the Philippines what kind of partner it is: one who builds, shares, shows up.
It proved it can arm friends at scale. For the Philippines, Australia means if Manila needs serious upgrades, Japan has the muscle, and the will, to deliver.
Canberra is a sweet deal. We benefit without footing the bill. They buy the ships, but they sail the same region. More friendly hulls, more eyes, more presence around the Philippines. Very nice.
Right now, our budget puts us in the same drills as the US and Japan. Biggest Balikatan ever. Live fire, missiles. Real scenarios. This used to be simple: Philippines and the US. Now it’s a team.
When countries train like this, they already know who moves where, who fires what, who backs who up when push comes to shove.
Add Australian ships built by Japan, and suddenly the Philippines is working with the same systems and partners it might rely on later: seamless plug-and-play. Very smart.
The map gets crowded. In a good way. Before, Manila faced pressure largely alone, plus one friend. Now? More countries in the room, training, coordinating, present. Not a lone complainant anymore.
We’re not asking for help as much as are wired in, a node in a tripwire: touch one, everybody hears it. Alarms go off.
One country you can pressure. Five? Different story. China used to deal one-on-one; now it’s Japan-Australia-Philippines-US. You walk into the room, everyone’s already talking.
Tough room.
