We’ll see about defense
The US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is real. But it comes with a clause: action happens ‘in accordance with constitutional processes.’
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The US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is real. But it comes with a clause: action happens ‘in accordance with constitutional processes.’
We can still rely on the US under Trump. But we cannot safely rely on Trump the way the Philippines used to rely on America.
Look at NATO.
For 77 years, the treaty alliance ran on a simple deal: if someone hit one of them, they all hit back.
It was never meant to mean follow America into every war it decides to start.
The rule, Article 5, only really kicks in if a member is attacked. Even then, each country decides what it’s actually willing to do.
It has only been used once, after 9/11, where Nato supported the US in Afghanistan.
Now America goes to war with Iran. Europe? “Not our fight,” mostly.
Spain shuts airspace. Italy blocks bases. Brits hedge, then half-help. France keeps it defensive. Washington fumes.
America pays for most of it. Sixty percent. The weapons. Logistics. The reach. Europe has spent more in recent years. But the complaint hasn’t changed. “Freeloaders.”
So now Trump threatens to leave Nato. Maybe he can’t do it cleanly. Congress can block a formal exit. Doesn’t matter. A determined President with his hands on foreign policy can still hollow out an alliance without an act of Congress. Pull troops. Starve missions. European officials are increasingly pessimistic.
There’s precedent. Jimmy Carter. 1979. Walked away from a defense treaty with Taiwan to recognize China.
Congress pushed back. It didn’t stop him. The courts refused to settle it. Presidents move fast when they want to.
Now, if Europe can say no, what does “ally” mean when it’s us?
The US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is real. But it comes with a clause: action happens “in accordance with constitutional processes.”
There is always a point of decision. And under Trump, that choice is a coin toss.
Alliances are meant to remove doubt. Now they introduce it. We are protected by a promise that now depends on a man’s mood.
Not that Trump hates treaties. He treats them like transactions. Nato taught us that if you don’t show up for Trump when he calls, he questions the whole arrangement, where alliances are deals that must keep proving their value.
That is bad news for any ally that has always believed, universally and historically, we are Team USA.
The old alliance hinges on deterrence. Now, support has to be proven instead of assumed. Even when the Philippines is not Europe but is sitting inside the one contest both Republicans and many Democrats still treat as central: China.
The Philippines is flirting with a pivot. Not a clean break; more like a sidestep toward Beijing, chasing gas it can’t reach and relief it needs now.
Predictable China brings the goods. Pronto. America brings the big guns later. Maybe. China is always there. America shows up when it decides to.
The real nightmare is not that America will walk away. But that it will stay, and start bargaining in the middle of the fire.
This is a gift to every alternative power that is watching. Nato doesn’t have to disappear; Russia only needs the alliance to look unreliable. The same goes for China testing the edges of the US-led alliance in the Indo-Pacific.
For Xi, the opening is clear. The treaty needs a clear attack. China won’t give one.
It pressures the Philippines just short of war. And it is not reading the MDT line by line. It is reading Trump in real time. So there are now two lines: the treaty and Trump. That’s the gap we live in.
