As we navigate 2026 under the ASEAN chairmanship theme, “Navigating Our Future, Together,” many Filipinos might look at the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and see it as a distant fire — tragic, but ultimately a world away. However, in our interconnected reality, the smoke from that fire is already drifting into our kitchens, our commute, and our national security.

To the average Filipino, the Israel-Iran War isn’t just a headline; it is the silent thief behind the rising price of a kilo of rice and the P70-per-liter nightmare at the gas pump. Here is why this conflict is a local crisis in global clothing.

The economic domino effect

The Philippines remains hyper-vulnerable to global energy shocks. With the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important oil artery — under threat of blockade, global crude prices are volatile. When oil prices spike, the domino effect is immediate:

Logistics and Food: Higher fuel costs means it costs more to transport vegetables from Benguet to Manila.

Inflation: Economists warn that inflation could breach 7.3 percent to 8.6 percent in a worst-case scenario. This means your fixed salary will buy less than it did last month.

The human cost: Our modern-day heroes

We often forget that the Middle East is a second home to millions of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs). A full-scale war doesn’t just threaten their livelihoods — it threatens their lives. Beyond the looming threat of repatriation, the disruption of remittances — the lifeblood of our domestic economy — could cripple our GDP growth, which is projected to slow to 3.5 percent if the conflict persists. When an OFW in the Gulf loses their job due to the regional instability, a family in Pangasinan or Davao loses their education, healthcare and future.

Parallel realities: The West Philippine Sea

There is a striking logical parallelism between the Middle East and our own backyard. Just as Israel and Iran grapple with territorial sovereignty and regional influence, we face our own “David vs. Goliath” struggle in the West Philippine Sea.

The Middle East conflict serves as a cautionary tale of how quickly “gray zone” tensions can escalate into kinetic warfare. It also tests the commitment of our allies. If the United States is stretched thin by a conflict in the Middle East, what does that mean for its “ironclad” support of our maritime sovereignty? We must care about the Israel-Iran war because it reveals the fragility of the international rules-based order — the same order we rely on to protect our fishermen and our reefs.

Navigating the future

As the Philippines leads ASEAN this year, we cannot afford to be mere spectators. The theme of “Navigating Our Future, Together” demands that we recognize how a missile over Tehran or Tel Aviv is inextricably linked to peace in the Indo-Pacific.

We should care because our economy is fueled by Middle East oil, our families are fed by Middle East wages, and our national security is mirrored in Middle East tensions. The fire may be distant, but the heat is felt here. Understanding this isn’t just about being “aware” — it’s about preparing for a future where no nation is an island, and no conflict is truly “far away.”

Brace for the days ahead.