Cold frank reality
A quick, decisive win by the US and Israel is the fastest route back to Gulf stability, which is vital for the Philippines and the families of millions of overseas Filipino workers.
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A quick, decisive win by the US and Israel is the fastest route back to Gulf stability, which is vital for the Philippines and the families of millions of overseas Filipino workers.
Despite the country’s distance from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, many Filipinos’ lives remain at risk, and countless families are praying for an early end to the surge in prices it has triggered.
Yet the war, largely a confrontation between the United States–Israel alliance and the Iranian regime, is necessary to preserve balance in the global order, given that Tehran’s nuclear arsenal poses a clear and present threat.
A sober, woke-free assessment of political commentator and The Australian Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan captures the brutal realpolitik of the war, warning that the regime led by Mojtaba Khamenei remains willing to “wreak a humanitarian catastrophe” on the Gulf if it believes it can weaken its enemies.
Iran is under a new leadership after the US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February.
Sheridan’s hawkish view stated a cold truth: The Iranian regime’s strategy is to make victory as costly as possible for everyone else.
A quick, decisive win by the US and Israel is the fastest route back to Gulf stability, which is vital for the Philippines and the families of millions of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).
Remittances remain robust. OFWs in the regions of conflict sent $516.51 million of the total $3.02 billion in cash remittances for January.
Indications point to the trend being maintained for now, with the sliding peso value serving as an incentive, since a weak currency means the US dollars they earn are worth more.
The risk, however, is a prolonged turmoil that will result in job losses, which will be catastrophic for the economy, which is not prepared to absorb the millions of displaced OFWs.
Thus, for Filipinos watching fuel prices climb while worrying about loved ones in Riyadh, Dubai or Doha, winning the war is the difference between economic resilience and a painful crisis.
The Australian commentator, known for his pragmatic and unapologetic views, explained that the United States and Israel must “win this war in the interest of everybody.”
The regime in Tehran is oblivious to mass casualties, even among its own people or leadership, as demonstrated in its attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, launching missile barrages and striking energy infrastructure.
A prolonged conflict would allow Iran to turn the Persian Gulf into a zone of suffering.
Only a decisive victory by the US and Israel can prevent this outcome, forcing the Iranian regime to collapse or sue for peace before it can inflict maximum damage, according to Sheridan.
The Gulf is the world’s energy artery. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian actions, such as blockading the strait, attacking tankers, and hitting Saudi, Emirati and Qatari facilities, were deliberately aimed at disrupting the global economy.
In Sheridan’s view, the total victory of the US-led alliance must happen since half-measures or premature ceasefires would only embolden Tehran.
“A clear US-Israeli win, by contrast, would restore deterrence, secure energy markets and prevent wider chaos that could draw in other actors,” he held.
The perspective aligns with the hopes of Filipinos, who see a prolonged war as a bread-and-butter crisis.
The country is among the most exposed in Southeast Asia due to its utter dependence on fuel imports, which the Marcos administration has done little to reverse.
Households and businesses feel the ripples of pain through higher pump prices, transport costs, electricity rates and inflation.
What Sheridan calls a “humanitarian catastrophe” would be a frightening prospect, very real for many suffering families.
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