Incidents linked to the Communist insurgency fell steadily from 2019 to 2025, reflecting sustained government security operations and localized peace efforts, according to a report from Philippine Strategic Advisors (PSA) Intelligence.

Data released to DAILY TRIBUNE showed a significant drop in New People’s Army (NPA)–related violence over the six years. Authorities credited intensified military campaigns, inter-agency coordination, and programs encouraging rebel surrenders for the decline.

Despite the overall decrease, most violent incidents in 2025 involved armed clashes between government forces and NPA rebels. Many were triggered by community reports of extortion, suggesting that remaining rebel groups rely on small-scale operations to survive.

While weakened, the insurgency has not been eradicated. Rebel activity is now more localized, with fewer large-scale offensives and sporadic engagements. Nonviolent incidents, including surrenders, accounted for the majority of recorded cases. Authorities said livelihood and reintegration programs have been key in persuading thousands of insurgents to abandon armed struggle.

Casualty data showed most fatalities occurred among NPA members, highlighting the continued intensity of ground operations despite the overall decline in incidents.

Looking ahead, PSA Intelligence projects that most NPA-related violence in 2026 will stem from military operations targeting remaining rebel units.

Armed conflict to remain

The report predicted that armed encounters will continue as security forces pursue weakened insurgent cells. While the NPA’s capacity for coordinated attacks has diminished, smaller actions — ambushes and use of light firearms or explosives — are expected to persist.

Analysts said these incidents will likely be isolated and opportunistic rather than strategic, reflecting the group’s reduced workforce, limited resources, and disrupted command structure. Extortion is also expected to remain minimal and localized, with rebels focusing on food and basic supplies rather than great financial demands.

The continued deaths and arrests of key leaders, along with internal challenges, have further limited the NPA’s operational capacity. Authorities stressed that ongoing security operations remain necessary to prevent a resurgence in areas where remnants of the insurgency still operate.