Towards a global food shortage

(Author’s Note. Source data for this article is ChatGPT.)

Today, we stand at the precipice of a huge mega-disaster never before seen in human history.

The global oil crisis has been triggered by the war between US-Israel and Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the global oil supply passes. No one knows what will result from that war, when it will end, or what the global price of oil will be then. On top of that, the Panama Canal, an alternative route for global oil, also has its problems. If this is also compromised later, the transport cost for oil for Southeast Asia could easily double.

Here is the domino effect leading to a global food crisis. Hormuz blockade — fertilizer shortage — rice and food shortage — hoarding — government control — hunger and famine — social unrest. This does not take into account the dramatic effects of global warming (typhoons, hurricanes, ocean current aberrations affecting weather and fish supply, climatic aberrations due to shifts in polar conditions). This last harsh winter has churned up blizzards in the US, Russia, China and Japan

Before the crisis, 30 to 35 percent of global seaborne fertilizer (mainly nitrogen and urea) passed through Hormuz. Nearly half of the globally traded urea originates in the Gulf and passes through Hormuz. The fertilizer supply passing through Hormuz has dramatically plummeted to zero to 10 percent as of 6 April. As a result, global fertilizer prices are rapidly spiking.

Countries with agricultural economies like India and the Philippines are highly exposed — also Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Brazil. Strategies on food security need to be planned in advance in anticipation of food supplies diving and prices skyrocketing. China has a large domestic fertilizer production base but exports are restricted. Russia and the US are net exporters. So the main victims are Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

In the Philippines, the price of rice has risen by three to five percent since January. Record highs are P65 to P70 per kilogram from P45 to P60/kg. If fertilizer prices spike by 50 to 100 percent, this will add eight to 15 percent to farming costs. The Philippines imports 20 to 30 percent of its rice supply. Expected increases include: for rice by 15 to 30 percent, vegetables 20 to 40 percent, meat 10 to 20 percent, fish 10 to 25 percent.

If the Hormuz disruption lasts three to six months, rice prices will rise 30 to 50 percent, food 20 to 35 percent. There is a high risk of government price caps, expanded subsidies, supply shortages in some areas. Bigger increases are expected in a second wave in mid-2026 if the disruption continues.

Never in the history of mankind has there been a need on a planet level to alleviate poverty, to share with our neighbors, fend off anarchy and develop strategies in food security and production.

Now, more than ever, when the crisis gets worse, we need to have programs for fuel austerity, to return to the stone age of wood and rice bran fuel, to expand mass transport systems away from Grab cars.

The Church has a special role in harnessing the faithful to work for each other, especially for the poor, and strengthening the basic community organizations down to the barangay and sitio levels.

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