A projected diesel rollback of as much as P20.89 per liter and a gasoline cut of P4.43 per liter may greet motorists this week, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said Sunday.

But Garin immediately tempered the optimism by warning that the relief hinges on whether the United States sustains its pause in hostilities with Iran.

In a Facebook post, Garin said kerosene prices are also expected to decline by P8.50 per liter for the period of 14 April to 20 April.

She noted the estimates were based on the average of the last five days’ international prices compared with the previous week.

“It’s based on the average of the last five days’ international prices and comparing that to the average of the previous week,” she said.

Garin stressed that actual pump price adjustments may vary across fuel stations, but the figures represent the minimum expected rollback.

Targeted relief

The projected cuts come amid volatile global oil movements triggered by the Middle East conflict, where shifting geopolitical decisions continue to dictate supply expectations.

Garin warned that any escalation — or reversal — of the current pause in fighting could quickly alter price trajectories.

Beyond the anticipated rollback, the Department of Energy (DoE) is rolling out targeted relief for public utility jeepney (PUJ) drivers, offering a P10 per liter discount for up to 150 liters of fuel from accredited stations.

The program will take effect 14 April, initially covering routes in the National Capital Region, including Commonwealth Avenue, España Avenue in Manila, Zapote in Las Piñas, A. Bonifacio in Caloocan, and Rizal and Marcos Highway, before expanding nationwide.

Still, officials caution that the reprieve may be temporary.

In a radio interview, Garin said fuel prices are unlikely to return to P60 per liter, citing long-term disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

“The conflict remains unpredictable, and repairs to oil-related facilities could take a long time, even with de-escalation,” she said in Filipino.

Market forces

Analysts point to structural market behavior that may blunt the impact of falling global prices.

Dr. Renato de Castro, a professor at the Department of International Studies of De La Salle University, earlier told the DAILY TRIBUNE that oil markets exhibit a “rocket feather effect,” where prices surge rapidly but decline slowly.

Even when global benchmarks such as Brent crude ease following ceasefire developments involving the United States, Israel and Iran, local pump prices tend to remain elevated.

According to De Castro, oil firms swiftly pass on cost increases to consumers but delay price reductions to preserve margins.