The Federation of Philippine Industries Inc. (FPI) said a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran may calm global oil markets, but Philippine businesses are unlikely to feel immediate relief as higher costs continue to ripple through supply chains.

According to FPI, companies are still operating on expensive inventories built during the recent spike in fuel prices, meaning any drop in global oil costs will take time to filter down.

“The global oil prices may ease on the news, but domestic impact is not instantaneous. Businesses are still operating on higher-cost inventories, and adjustments in fuel, freight, and supply chains will depend on whether the ceasefire holds,” said FPI chairperson Elizabeth H. Lee.

Beyond fuel, the impact is being felt across manufacturing, particularly in sectors dependent on petroleum-based inputs such as plastics and packaging.

Supply disruptions in the Middle East have tightened the availability of key materials, forcing companies to source alternatives at higher prices and keeping production costs elevated. Logistics expenses have also surged, with higher transport and freight costs feeding into overall price pressures.

Businesses and households have begun adjusting to the higher-cost environment, with firms streamlining operations and consumers managing spending more cautiously.

“The reality is that elevated energy costs dampen consumption, slow economic activity, and constrain industrial output. Normalization will take time—it is not immediate,” she said.

To cushion the impact, industry groups are pushing for targeted government support for affected sectors, particularly micro, small, and medium enterprises and energy-intensive industries, alongside measures to stabilize fuel-related costs and reduce reliance on imports.

“At the end of the day, even if the ceasefire holds, this is not yet a return to normal. It is, however, a critical window to accelerate reforms and build resilience across energy, supply chains, and domestic industry,” Lee said.