We thought this would end with a deal. A ceasefire. Supposed to open Hormuz. Everybody said, “Great, back to normal.”

Not really.

Markets got excited. Prices dropped. But it’s a temporary access, not freedom.

Iran is insisting on a Hormuz system as an integral part of its peace terms. Call it what it is. Extortion. Toll. The “Tehran Toll Booth.” They decide who goes through, how, how much.

Ships aren’t even sailing the middle anymore. They hug Iran’s coast. Squeeze between Qeshm and Larak. Like a checkpoint. You file your cargo, your ownership, destination.

It goes to people tied to the IRGC. Then you wait. Maybe you’re cleared. Maybe you’re not.

Iran’s rationale: security fee. Escorts. “Dangerous waters.” It created the problem and then charges to fix it.

At least a dollar a barrel. Sometimes more. About $2 million per tanker some say. Just to pass.

First they charge per barrel. Next they charge per relationship. Then it’s per flag. Per alliance. Per mood, frankly. Good day, lower price. Bad day, good luck.

And they want yuan, sometimes crypto. Not dollars. Petroyuan. China didn’t even send a ship.

You get approved, they send boats. Escorts.

Iran wants to keep that toll. Maybe make it permanent. Maybe bring in Oman, share the money, make it look official.

It’s big money. Some say $500 billion in a year. Enough to rebuild. Enough to rearm. All from one narrow strip of water.

Now, tolls are for canals. Suez. Panama. You build it, you charge. Fine. Hormuz is different. Natural waterway. Supposed to be open. That’s the law.

But law only matters if you can enforce it. Think West Philippine Sea.

We can’t just dig around it. They tried. Pipelines. Billions spent. Saudi to the Red Sea. UAE to Fujairah. Not enough. Hormuz is still the center. Everything runs through it.

People go, “It’s temporary. Don’t worry.”

We’ve seen this before. 1429. King Eric of Pomerania. Denmark. “You want to pass? You pay.” Oresund. Every ship to the Baltic had to stop at Helsingor.

Didn’t matter where you were going. No pay? Cannons.

And they paid. For centuries. Four hundred years. It became two-thirds of Denmark’s revenue. They refined it. Taxed cargo.

How did it end? Not easy. Thirteen countries. Britain, France, Russia. Had to step in and buy it out.

“Temporary” can last 400 years.

We’re going to see accountants figure this out before diplomats do. They’ll say, “Just pay it, move the cargo.”

Because shipping companies won’t even have to fight it. They’ll just pass the cost to you and move on. Insurance guys raise premiums. Everybody’s going to stare at their maps and get ideas. “Why aren’t we charging?”

Illegal that works, and gets paid, is policy. If you can tax the road, you don’t even need to win the war.

Trump can accept this “working” reality even if Iran charges a fee. That gives stability without a fight.

Or he can go full “terror” on his war against terror and “wipe out an entire civilization.”

That’s the Trump dilemma. Enforce the rules and risk war, or accept the toll and call it peace.