War’s quiet winner

The world braced for the Strait of Hormuz to close. Yet the tankers keep sailing, and millions of barrels of oil continue heading toward China.

Do you think Iran can afford to cut off its war budget just to spite Uncle Sam?

Iran’s economy runs on oil exports, and China is its largest buyer — even under sanctions. In some ways, especially under sanctions.

The message to Beijing seems clear: We are fighting the West, not you.

Iranian officials now speak about the strait as if it remains open by grace, like a favor extended to the world. The truth is that a total closure would hurt Iran as well. It would isolate the country instantly.

So instead of closing Hormuz, they squeeze it.

Ships tied to Western economies face threats, inspections and insurance nightmares, while tankers bound for a “friend” quietly keep moving. A toll booth, really — a toll booth with missiles. The United States and Israel may simply take the long way around.

That is extraordinary leverage for a country under sanctions. One narrow waterway has become a giant pressure valve on the global economy.

About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet when people talk about those barrels, they rarely mention the men steering the ships. A remarkable number of them are Filipino.

Filipino sailors are everywhere in global shipping — officers, engineers and deckhands quietly embedded in world trade. The Philippines is not at war in the Gulf, but Filipino sailors sail through it every day. Now missiles circle those waters and the tankers still move.

The Philippines does not control the oil system. But Filipinos help operate it. Remove them and oil stops flowing. If Filipino labor powers the system, why does Manila behave as if it has no seat at the energy table?

Some ships have even started broadcasting unusual messages on their tracking systems: “China owner.” A small electronic signal that says: Relax — we are friendly.

Beijing plays a careful double game. China calls for restraint even as it continues to purchase Iranian crude. It sends no troops and trades with everyone — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Gulf states — carefully avoiding the appearance of military alignment.

In truth, Beijing does not need warships in the Gulf. War is already delivering what it wants.

China sends money, and money sustains wars. As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, Beijing can veto resolutions calling for harsher sanctions or international intervention.

Iran, therefore, understands something important: the world’s most powerful diplomatic body cannot easily move against it without China’s consent.

Many believe Middle East oil wars are about America securing energy supplies. But sanctions have created a stranger system.

When producers like Iran, Russia and Venezuela are cut off from Western markets, their customer list shrinks and prices fall.

China does not need to control oil fields in Iran. It simply needs to be the buyer of last resort when everyone else leaves the market. The barrels still move — just east instead of west.

Discounted oil. Fewer competitors. A much cheaper form of influence.