Petroleum prices are unlikely to decline immediately despite a two-week ceasefire agreement involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, an expert said Wednesday.

International relations expert Renato de Castro said the truce will not instantly lead to a sharp drop in domestic oil prices, even as global benchmarks fell following the announcement.

Although prices may “soften,” or gradually decrease over time, he said consumers should not expect an immediate rollback after more than a month of successive increases.

“It means that it may not go up immediately, but the positive, of course, in this aspect, is that it may dip slightly. But we should not expect that the price will go down right away,” he said in Filipino in a radio interview.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin echoed the outlook, noting that fuel prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon.

“It will take a long time for the world to go back to where it was before the war,” Garin told ANC. “What we just want is to stop [prices] from going up.”

She explained that restoring damaged oil fields in the Middle East could take years, limiting any immediate price relief.

While acknowledging that prolonged high prices remain a concern, Garin said the current situation gives the government better foresight to develop long-term strategies for the oil and gas sector.

After more than a month of surging prices, global oil costs dipped below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire, which includes plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supply passes daily.

De Castro said current fuel prices are being driven less by traditional market forces such as supply and demand, and more by geopolitical developments.

“It depends on the strategic and diplomatic signals coming from Washington and Tehran,” he said, warning that any violation of the truce could trigger another spike in global oil prices.

The Philippines remains highly vulnerable to such fluctuations, as it imports about 95 to 98 percent of its oil from the Middle East.

Despite this, the Department of Energy assured that domestic fuel supply remains stable. As of Tuesday, total inventory stood at 75.05 million liters, enough to last more than 50 days.

Gasoline stocks reached 23.33 million liters, sufficient for about 57.6 days, while diesel supply stood at 32.52 million liters, enough for roughly 47 days.

Kerosene supply, at 142,140 liters, could last up to 106 days, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stocks totaled 10.27 million liters, sufficient for 33 days.

Jet fuel and fuel oil inventories were at 6.32 million liters and 2.47 million liters, enough for 66 and 52 days, respectively.