Rising oil prices pushed inflation above the government’s target in March, as fuel and transport expenses climbed following global supply disruptions due to the war in the Middle East.

Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed inflation accelerated to 4.1 percent in March from 2.4 percent in February, marking its fastest rise in nearly two years. The figure exceeded the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2 to 4-percent target band and surpassed market expectations.

The sharp increase was largely driven by transport costs, which jumped 9.9 percent after a 0.3-percent decline in the previous month.

Fuel prices recorded steep increases, with gasoline jumping 27.3 percent and diesel surging 59.5 percent.

National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the spike in transport costs accounted for more than half of the overall inflation increase.

“The factor that contributed to the higher transport inflation in March 2026 was the increase in prices following the decline in gasoline and diesel prices in February 2026,” he said in Filipino.

The surge in fuel prices followed global oil supply disruptions after the conflict in the Middle East intensified, affecting key shipping routes.

Food inflation also picked up, rising to 3.0 percent from 1.8 percent, driven in part by higher rice prices which returned to positive growth after more than a year of decline.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, climbed to 3.2 percent from 2.9 percent, indicating broader price pressures.

Despite the spike, year-to-date inflation remains within target at 2.8 percent, suggesting that price pressures, while rising, are still manageable for now.

The government has begun rolling out measures to contain the impact, including fuel subsidies, emergency oil procurement, and transport support programs.

“The government stands ready to address emerging inflation pressures through strategic, well-targeted, and time-bound interventions, particularly in fuel, transport, and food,” said Secretary Arsenio Balisacan of the Department of Economy, Planning and Development.