The escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel has sent shockwaves through global markets, driven up energy costs, weakened the Philippine peso, and intensified concerns for millions of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) across the Middle East. 

As hostilities continue, Manila’s government and business sectors are bracing for the economic fallout.

Oil Prices and the Philippine Economy

The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, which have surpassed $100 per barrel, largely due to fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint through which nearly one‑fifth of the world’s oil travels. 

International benchmarks for crude have climbed steadily as the crisis persists, reflecting both supply risks and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

For the Philippines, which imports more than 90 percent of its crude oil, these global price movements have immediate local consequences.

Fuel prices have risen for the tenth consecutive week, with gasoline increasing by nearly P2 per liter and diesel and kerosene also climbing, in part due to tensions in the Middle East.

The surge in fuel costs has begun spilling over into household and business expenses.

The peso has also weakened, hitting a new historic low near ₱59.5 per US dollar, a slide that economists link directly to the oil price spike and erosion of investor confidence in emerging markets.

In response, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered government offices to implement energy‑saving measures, including reducing air conditioning use and considering a four‑day workweek to cut fuel consumption.

The Department of Energy is exploring alternative suppliers to bolster crude reserves and ensure supply continuity should the conflict escalate further, while also preparing for potential price volatility in the weeks ahead.

Lawmakers have urged additional policy measures, including calls to suspend fuel excise taxes temporarily to cushion the blow for consumers and transport sectors. 

Overseas Filipino Workers: Safety and Repatriation

While the Philippines remains geographically distant from the battlefield, the human cost of the conflict is already being felt by Filipinos abroad. 

At least 1,400 Filipinos have requested repatriation from Israel, Bahrain, Jordan and Iran, as rising hostilities make travel and work increasingly dangerous, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs.

In an exclusive interview with DAILY TRIBUNE, Israeli Ambassador Dana Kursh spoke directly about the tragedy that befell Filipina caregiver Mary Ann de Vera, who was killed while helping her elderly employer reach safety during a missile strike. 

“We will do everything in our power to bring the remains of the beloved Mary Ann back. And she will be reunited with her family in Pangasinan,” Kursh said, underscoring the severity of the conflict’s impact on migrant workers. 

She added that Mary Ann would receive compensation equal to that given to Israeli victims of terror attacks, stressing that the loss was felt deeply on both sides.

Kursh also reflected on the broader toll of the conflict, saying, “There are no words to omit the pain. You cannot grasp losing a child,” highlighting the emotional and human dimension behind the statistics.

President Marcos has repeatedly urged restraint while emphasizing the government’s commitment to assisting OFWs in reaching safer areas.

The Department of National Defense and Armed Forces has reiterated that the conflict poses no direct military threat to Philippine territory, but authorities maintain heightened vigilance given the scale of the crisis.

Tracing the Conflict

The current Middle East confrontation escalated sharply on February 28, 2026, when coordinated airstrikes by U.S. and Israeli forces targeted Iranian military and nuclear facilities, representing a major escalation in a long‑standing regional rivalry. 

Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israeli cities and U.S. military positions, widening the conflict from proxy engagements to direct confrontation.

According to PBS NewsHour, the conflict has since expanded beyond direct military strikes to involve allied states and militia groups in Lebanon, Iraq and the Gulf, complicating diplomatic efforts to contain the violence.

The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply flows — has emerged as a critical flashpoint. 

Disruptions there, whether temporary closures or sustained instability, have amplified market fears about global energy security, contributing to the oil price spikes now being felt in Manila and beyond.

As the conflict continues, analysts warn that its economic effects could be long‑lasting, impacting inflation, trade balances and investor sentiment both domestically and globally.

For the Philippines, which is heavily dependent on imported energy and remittances from OFWs, these developments underscore the interconnectedness of geopolitics and everyday life at home.