Fuel prices are expected to rise again next week, extending this year’s upward trend and ushering in higher pump costs to start March, amid geopolitical tensions and supply concerns in global markets.

The Department of Energy said Friday that early estimates based on the first four days of Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) trading indicate increases across all major fuel products, with gasoline seen rising by about P1.10 per liter, diesel by P0.50 per liter, and kerosene by P0.90 per liter.

“Crude lacks direction as the market looks to US-Iran talks (on 26 February) in Geneva. This was the third round of talks made by the two countries,” DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rodela Romero said in a text message.

She added that geopolitical developments continue to push prices upward. 

“Still, the US sanctions 12 more tankers transporting Iranian crude and continues its massive military build-up in the Middle East region. These contributed to the upward direction in the prices of petroleum products,” Romero said.

Separate projections from Jetti Petroleum, Inc. showed steeper increases, with diesel seen rising by P0.80 to P1.00 per liter and gasoline by P1.40 to P1.60 per liter, driven largely by geopolitical tensions and tighter regional supply.

“The uncertainty in the Middle East continues to support diesel and gasoline prices this week as the underlying crude prices continue their upward trajectory,” said Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas. 

“Pushing gasoline prices even higher is the lower exports from China and South Korea owing to lower production over the Lunar New Year holidays,” he added.

Bellas said escalation risks between Washington and Tehran remain a key concern.

Jetti President Leo Bellas said the unresolved US-Iran tensions and Iran’s recent live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz, which highlighted its ability to disrupt oil transit, continue to keep crude prices elevated.

Still, he said, additional supply could temper further increases.

“The potential resumption of production increases by OPEC+ from April, following a Q1 pause, could drive inventory builds and help temper price gains,” Bellas said.

This week, gasoline prices rose by P0.60 per liter, while diesel and kerosene increased by P1.20 per liter each.