Parallels are being drawn between Vice President Sara Duterte’s strong survey performance, particularly her frontrunner status in the 2028 presidential race, and the high ratings once enjoyed by then-Vice President Jejomar Binay ahead of the 2016 polls.

Both political stalwarts entered the vice presidency with substantial public trust and approval, positioning them as leading contenders, but their trajectories highlight vulnerabilities that can undermine even robust early leads.

VP Duterte’s trust ratings have dipped to a slim majority of about 53 to 54 percent nationwide, down from near-universal support — reaching as high as nine in 10 Filipinos — at the start of her term, possibly indicating fatigue after unrelenting political attacks.

Although the slide was not as pronounced as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s free fall, VP Duterte’s numbers indicate a loss of momentum.

By December 2025, Pulse Asia’s poll showed the President’s net trust stood at +32, with 47 percent distrust and 48 percent disapproval, indicating a majority of negative sentiment overall.

What is unassailable, however, is that VP Duterte maintained solid levels of support in her core base, reflected in 95 percent approval and 96 percent trust in Mindanao in the same survey, with additional strength in Central Visayas, estimated at around 30 percent of the voting population.

A political analyst said that while VP Duterte’s support reflects a strong regional base that provides a solid foundation, it will not be sufficient on its own to secure a national victory in 2028, especially in a crowded race marked by impeachment proceedings and emerging questions about competence or integrity.

The analyst said such factors could erode her support, even among the VP’s loyalists, by chipping away at her image as “clean and resolute.”

Remember that Binay entered the pre-2016 period with even higher ratings than VP Duterte’s current levels at a comparable stage in his vice presidency.

He was seen as a popular, experienced leader with broad appeal, but the image faltered dramatically due to corruption allegations tied to infrastructure projects in Makati City, which surfaced and intensified closer to the election.

The accusations leveled at him by the Senate troika of Senators Koko Pimentel, Antonio Trillanes IV, and Alan Peter Cayetano eroded public trust, particularly in areas where his support had previously been strong, ultimately contributing to his third-place finish in the 2016 presidential race behind Rodrigo Duterte and Mar Roxas.

The fragility of high ratings shows the futility of basing political ambitions on surveys, whose results are themselves open to question.

The experiences of both Duterte and Binay demonstrate that early popularity is not a guarantee against decline as the elections draw closer.

The challenge for VP Duterte is to fend off the backlash from targeted moves against her, such as the impeachment cases, that could replicate Binay’s slide, potentially eroding trust among key demographics and preventing her from benefiting from regional dominance and translating that into a national majority.

The outcome hinges on her effective navigation of attacks and whether they resonate with voters, underscoring that sustained trust, not just initial highs, is crucial for electoral success.

A political strategist explains that VP Duterte must be proactive in addressing controversies, such as the alleged misuse of P125 million in confidential funds, through public disclosures, independent audits, or congressional testimonies to prevent a repeat of Binay’s experience.Perceptions of evasiveness have fueled distrust, as Binay’s denials, lacking robust evidence, allowed Makati corruption claims to fester.

She should reinforce her accountability to prevent erosion among middle- and upper-class voters, where sharper declines in her support are found.

It is still a long way to the crucial 2028 race, which, based on the experience of previous polls, will not be over until it’s over.