Global trade resilient amid policy shifts — UN
‘Despite turbulence from shifting United States trade policy, global trade dynamics have so far shown limited disruption, with developing economies maintaining strong commitment to trade as a foundation for growth. Still, uncertainty over United States policy remains a notable risk.’
The latest UN Conference on Trade and Development global trade update says despite concerns over global protectionism and US policy shifts, developing economies have remained the main global trade growth drivers. Merchandise trade in the second quarter of 2025 was fueled largely by South-South trade, while weaker trade performance from the US pulled down global averages.
Photograph courtesy of UNCTAD
Global trade is on track to reach record highs by the end of 2025, expanding by around $500 billion in the first half of the year, according to the latest Global Trade Update released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Released on 9 October 2025, the report cited the resilience of the multilateral trading system, robust growth in services trade, and limited spillovers from trade policy uncertainty as key factors supporting global trade momentum.
“The so far limited trade policy responses by other governments to United States trade restrictions are expected to continue, while services trade is likely to remain largely insulated from policy shifts, supporting further growth in global trade,” UNCTAD said.
Developing economies as main growth drivers
Despite concerns over global protectionism and US policy shifts, developing economies have remained the main growth drivers.
Merchandise trade in the second quarter of 2025 was fueled largely by South–South trade, while weaker trade performance from the US pulled down global averages.
“Despite turbulence from shifting United States trade policy, global trade dynamics have so far shown limited disruption, with developing economies maintaining strong commitment to trade as a foundation for growth. Still, uncertainty over United States policy remains a notable risk,” the report added.
UNCTAD also noted that the manufacturing sector continues to drive global trade expansion, led by electronics and the automotive industry, particularly hybrid and electric vehicles. Demand from artificial intelligence (AI) systems boosted electronics trade, though semiconductor exports remained subdued amid ongoing restrictions.
Caveat on geopolitical risks
Upward revisions in global growth forecasts and potential monetary easing in major economies are also expected to sustain trade activity.
However, the report warned that persistent geopolitical tensions, industrial policy shifts, and overcapacity risks could dampen growth in the coming months.
“Domestic-focused industrial strategies, combined with reduced demand for imported goods in the United States, may exacerbate oversupply in certain sectors, prompting countries to adopt defensive trade measures,” the report stated.
UNCTAD said the overall outlook remains positive as cooperation among developing economies strengthens, potentially reducing policy uncertainty and supporting higher trade growth toward the end of 2025.