One doesn’t really know historical events just because one is living through them is a good rule of thumb when faced with the dizzying headlines provoked by the Israel-Iran war.

So, if we can’t yet judge events we’re caught in, let’s all take a deep breath and stop all that anxious Googling and YouTubing on how to survive WWIII.

It, however, would help if many of us – especially foreign affairs naifs Sara Duterte and Robin Padilla — calmly try breaking down a big confusing story to its smaller parts to make sense of it.

One such latest big confusing story was US President Donald Trump’s 48-hour whirlwind turn last week where he “veered from elated to indignant to triumphant as his fragile Israel-Iran truce came together, teetered toward collapse, and ultimately coalesced,” as the Associated Press reported.

To tell it as it was, in quick succession Trump decided to bomb Iranian nuclear sites, then Iran retaliated by bombing a US base in Qatar, which all but sent the world panicking.

An ebullient Trump last Monday, however, declared that Israel and Iran had agreed to a truce. Later in the day, both Israel and Iran confirmed the deal.

But as the events unfolded many didn’t quickly sense that it was all orchestrated, enabling face-saving measures for the US, Israel and Iran, analysts said.

In support of the scheme, Iran telegraphed well in advance its missile attack on the US’ AI Udeid air base in Qatar, thereby signaling to the parties that Iran would only accept the truce after it made a symbolic show of force.

As such, all but one of the Iranian missiles in the second volley on the air base were intercepted and the one that did get through fell harmlessly.

Satellite imagery showed that planes and drones had been cleared from the base tarmac before the strikes and moved to Saudi Arabia, again strongly hinting that the Iranian strike was pre-orchestrated.

Israel, meanwhile, could also claim victory. In accepting the ceasefire proposal, Israel said it did so after “achieving the objective” of getting rid of Iran’s nuclear threat.

In connection with this, leaked American intel said the US airstrikes failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites, costing Iran only a few months’ delay in its nuke program, which sent Trump ballistic.

But the US could also claim victory. Trump, in his typical credit-grabbing fashion on his Truth Social platform, called the attack on the US base a “weak response” for which Washington was given “early notice.” Trump then extended an olive branch to Iran.

But hours before the ceasefire took effect, there were worrying reports that both Israel and Iran were still exchanging fire. Analysts, however, said the exchange could be dismissed as no more than the proverbial “last bursts of fire” which usually accompany ceasefire deadlines.

Trump, however, ripped into Iran and Israel for violating the truce deal. “You basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and hard that they don’t know what the f --- they’re doing,” he bellowed on Tuesday.

Beyond the US President’s bruised ego, however, Trump and his people were more likely alarmed by the fact that if they allowed Israel and Iran to do what they wanted to do, it could only mean the US henceforth could not compel regional political actors “to do things they don’t want to do or deter them from things they do want to do.”

Nonetheless, the fragile Israel-Iran truce seemed to have taken hold by the middle of the week, which only meant that ahead lies once again a tenuous, uncertain peace in the Middle East.