A breakthrough ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran, brokered by United States President Donald Trump, offered a glimmer of hope for global oil markets shaken by the tensions in the Middle East.

For a fuel-importing country like the Philippines, the agreement may signal a modest easing in pump prices after months of volatility.

Still, the Department of Energy said Tuesday that while the ceasefire may calm market jitters, the Philippines must still ensure long-term energy security by diversifying its oil sources.

Shifting away from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers, however, comes at a cost.

According to Jetti Petroleum Inc. president Leo Bellas, importing crude from countries like Canada may offer supply security, but it also means higher prices at the pump.

“For crude oil, the best source for the country’s sole refinery is still the Middle East. Importation from other sources can be an option if Middle East crude becomes inaccessible. But the cost to bring the crude oil from those other sources will definitely be higher vis-a-vis the Middle East,” Bellas said Tuesday.

He pointed out that crude quality varies by source, which may affect its suitability for processing in the country’s lone refinery.

As for refined fuel products, Bellas noted that the country currently sources its supply from refineries across Asia, which in turn draw crude oil from multiple countries.

“Those refineries have various crude oil sources and may include the US, Canada and Russia. Refined products from India and the Middle East are also finding homes in Asia, particularly in Singapore,” he said.

“Sourcing refined fuel products from Canada and the US is also possible. But the logistics cost will be a primary concern,” Bellas added.

On price trends, Bellas said domestic fuel prices could still increase next week based on Monday’s Mean of Platts Singapore trading, which showed an uptick of around P0.75 to P0.95 per liter for diesel and P1.45 to P1.65 for gasoline.