“Learn from the Dutertes.” This admonition by Society of the Divine Word (SVD) religious, Fr. Flavie Villanueva, rings loud as the campaign period for local elections has officially started.

The Catholic missionary priest, known for establishing the St. Arnold Janssen Kalinga Center which offers food and hygiene services to homeless communities in Manila, and Program Paghilom, the initiative designed to help heal families of victims of Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war, expressed hope the electorate would be more discerning in selecting local leaders in the May midterm elections.

“Let us learn from the Dutertes,” he said, referring to the former president, Rodrigo Duterte, now in The Hague awaiting trial for alleged crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court, and his daughter, Sara Duterte, the first Philippine vice president to be impeached on charges of graft and corruption, among other high crimes.

Voters will have plenty of discerning to do through the 45-day campaign period when it comes to the elections in May, with candidates vying for 82 provincial governorships and vice governorships, 722 provincial board member positions, 149 city mayorships and vice mayorships, 1,682 city councilor posts, 1,493 municipal mayorships and vice mayorships, 11, 948 municipal councilor positions and 254 House of Representatives seats to fill.

One of these candidates is former President Duterte, who had filed his certificate of candidacy for Davao City mayor but it remains to be seen if he could actually assume office while awaiting trial at The Hague.

True, the Commission on Elections has said Duterte can still be declared the winner and proclaimed mayor “in absencia” if he garners the most votes, and there is no denying that the Duterte name, whether Fr. Villanueva likes it or not, still has influence, particularly in Davao City.

Observes prominent NGO worker Ma. Victoria Maglana, who is running in Davao’s first congressional district again after she lost to Paolo Duterte in 2022: “News about the case in the ICC had been going around for a number of years but it still was a surprise when Duterte was arrested. This has fueled and is still fueling confusion, outrage, a sense of betrayal among his many supporters.”

Maglana said Duterte’s arrest and detention at The Hague could have a backlash that would be favorable to his allies who are running for local posts. “Already,” she said, “we are hearing calls that suggest Duterte is a martyr, and that he must be brought back to the Philippines.”

She cited the Filipino’s penchant for the underdog, saying that sympathy for Duterte could very well translate to support for the Dutertes’ bets in the midterm polls.

That may be so, but there too exist certain realities that cannot just be brushed off by even the most ardent Duterte supporters.

For instance, the former president has just turned 80 and he has to contend with four other candidates for Davao City mayor, all much younger, including his former ally, Cabinet Secretary and Presidential Spokesperson, Karlo Nograles, a member of another influential political dynasty in Davao.

Also, his apprehension and being carted off to The Hague — once believed by Davaoeños as unlikely to happen — has staggered the body politic in these parts and is seen by many as a game changer for the Dutertes.

With Duterte absent from the city, “people here will be thinking if it’s still worthwhile to vote for him or for someone else they can actually go to and ask for help when they need to,” says local politico Ruy Elias Lopez.

“Because what will they do if he wins,” asked Lopez, who had run against and lost to Duterte’s son, Sebastian, in the 2022 elections for Davao City mayor. “What will they do, go to the Netherlands to see their mayor?”

Indeed, what will happen if Rodrigo Duterte comes out the victor — in all probability a likelihood. So the Comelec will proclaim him the winner, and then what?