Daily Tribune
This handout picture provided by NASA on 31 January 2025 shows asteroid 2024 YR4 as observed by the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope at the New Mexico Institute of Technology on 27 January 2025.
Handout / NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology/Ryan / AFP
A recently discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a slim yet notable 2 percent chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, prompting astronomers to closely monitor its trajectory.
While the probability remains low, researchers are utilizing advanced space observatories, including the James Webb Space Telescope, to assess the potential impact of the space rock.
Estimated to be between 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, 2024 YR4 is roughly the size of a large building, according to Dr. Paul Chodas, manager of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California.
While far smaller than the 6.2-mile-wide asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, the asteroid is still categorized as a “city killer,” capable of causing significant localized devastation.
NASA’s risk corridor analysis suggests that if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the impact zone could stretch across parts of South America, Africa, the Arabian Sea, southern Asia, and the Pacific Ocean.
Meanwhile, countries within this potential strike band include Ethiopia, Sudan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and Nigeria. However, due to Earth’s rotation, the precise impact location remains uncertain.
Despite this, experts emphasize that there is no immediate cause for alarm, as the asteroid's trajectory is continuously reassessed with updated data. Scientists worldwide are working to refine calculations and better understand the risks associated with the space rock.
Planetary defense agencies have long been developing strategies to deflect potential threats from space. China has recently advertised three planetary defense positions within its State Department for Science and Technology’s special projects division.
Meanwhile, NASA and other international agencies are evaluating possible deflection techniques, such as kinetic impactors, nuclear explosives, and solar laser arrays.
However, some experts caution that existing methods may not provide sufficient time to act if 2024 YR4 were confirmed as an imminent threat. For now, astronomers remain focused on tracking the asteroid’s movements, ensuring the world stays informed about any changes in its projected path.
