Impeachment is again in the air and is threateningly reminiscent of the frenzy and highly partisan political maneuvering which disrupted our economy in 2000 when Erap Estrada, the cinema idol of the masses who parlayed his populist “Erap Para Sa Mahirap” into the presidency, was dramatically impeached by the oppositionist House of Representatives led by Speaker Manny Villar, a billionaire businessman turned politico who probably best personified the “intelligent” voters and had the popular support of mostly the middle and upper rungs of society — a classic case then, as in today’s collision between BBM and Sara Duterte, of the undeniable simmering resentment of the “have nots” against the “haves.”

Erap, of course, was subsequently “acquitted” due to the timidity of the Senate to pursue the opening of the envelope which supposedly contained damaging evidence which would prove his corruption. The highly emotional and tumultuous trial was subsequently marked by the walkout of the prosecution panel triggering eventually a military uprising that unseated Erap.

Throughout this drama, the economy was in shambles. The Philippine peso deteriorated severely against the dollar from P28 to P40, driving away foreign investors from the stock market, overnight interest rates shot up to 24 percent from 15 percent, putting on hold any new prospective investments being considered. The fiscal deficit doubled to P100 billion. Debt reached P2.1 trillion. Whatever momentum our economy had during the preceding administration of FVR went up in smoke derailing the bright prospects of the People Power revolution that promised a new beginning.

Today, barely still recovering from the Covid induced collapse of our economy, amid the bright prospects of the Unity Team’s landslide victory which promised a fresh start of non-partisan politics, here we are again, reliving a familiar plot as selfish ambitions fueled by greed for power and wealth as manifested by the controversial GAA 2025 insertions have openly surfaced creating a political chasm that will only widen and escalate as the 2028 presidential election approaches.

So what possibly awaits us? Our 2024 growth numbers, although still respectable at 5.7 percent, showing a slight increase above 2023’s 5.6 percent, are below earlier expectations. Inflation is seemingly under control but the World Bank in its recent monthly economic report has pronounced that there are definite upside risks to worry about because of the prolonged high interest scenario in the US that could further impede any near term dollar investment inflows into our markets threatening our peso exchange rate which means of course a higher import bill. The BSP will probably have to step on the brakes to further ease interest rates.

There are also no hints in the near future to suggest that investors will wake up from the slumber of our stock market. We still have three more long years of political infighting and instability until 2028 to endure. The government’s economic think tank, the Philippine Institute of Development Studies, is forecasting a 6.1 percent growth rate in 2025. But I believe that forecast is premised on a smooth administration and execution of the administration’s policies. That, however, is probably assuming a convincing victory of the administration’s allies in the coming May elections.

Erap, of course, was subsequently ‘acquitted’ due to the timidity of the Senate to pursue the opening of the envelope which supposedly contained damaging evidence which would prove his corruption.

If the impeachment process in the Senate will flounder because of the opposition’s strong showing, all bets are off. The political butterflies among the incumbents will surely start spreading their wings and loyalties will start shifting again in preparation for a likely Duterte victory in 2028. Only God knows where the current political drama will lead us to.

Exacerbating these dim prospects are several external crises besetting the world. Trump’s campaign promises of a drastic overhaul of US policies will certainly hit us. The formidable tariff wall that “Make America Great Again” Trump is assembling will definitely result in higher costs for our manufactured products and imported goods as other countries like China, which is our biggest import source, will surely retaliate.

The widening overt aggression of China towards us is also worrisome, particularly with the revival of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, which we clearly need to have some semblance of countering China’s irksome bullying tactics; it is also realistically an invitation to our direct involvement in the event armed hostilities erupt in the West Philippine Sea.

The political circus in our country seems to be a never ending telenovela. The cause? We ourselves are to blame because we never seem to tire of the shenanigans that our politicians bring to bear on us every election season. I wonder when we will learn to elect competent and truly sincere individuals who genuinely have the interests of the people in mind instead of electing wannabees seeking to cash in on their popularity as actors, commentators, nouveau rich businessmen eager to expand their reach, or political dynasty scions keen to reign in perpetuity who would not blush at all in fielding another son, daughter, sibling or in-law.

Until next week… OBF!

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